Trump's “two cards” — ceasefire and tariffs — how they simultaneously influence the crypto market

Trump announced on the evening of April 7th that he agreed to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, provided Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. This decision marks a new phase in the Middle East situation. However, it is worth noting that the documents signed by Trump on the same day show that the policies of imposing 50% tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, are still being pushed forward. This means that the “de-escalation” and “pressure” cards are being played simultaneously.
The impact of the ceasefire on the crypto market has begun to show: Bitcoin broke through $72,000, Ethereum rose above $2,200, and over 120k traders were liquidated across the network. The release of geopolitical risk premiums has given risk assets some breathing room. But a deeper analysis suggests that the positive effect of the ceasefire on crypto assets is more about “risk appetite recovery” than “fundamental improvement.” Restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will lower oil prices, thereby easing inflationary pressures and creating space for the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy adjustments — this is the true medium-term positive.
The impact of tariff policies is more complex. Imposing a 50% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper will increase manufacturing costs in the US, while a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals will directly affect the global pharmaceutical supply chain. These overlapping policies could exacerbate inflationary pressures and weaken the Fed’s room to cut interest rates. Currently, the market has not fully priced in the long-term effects of tariff policies, which may be the “gray rhino” hidden behind the ceasefire news.
From an asset allocation perspective, the ceasefire window provides a valuable “valuation recovery period” for the crypto market. But investors need to be clear: a two-week temporary ceasefire does not equal lasting peace. Among Iran’s ten-point demands are “permanent end to the war” and “lifting sanctions,” which fundamentally differ from the US stance. The risk of negotiations breaking down still exists. During these two weeks, the market will be affected by both the “ceasefire dividend” and the “tariff shadow,” so it is advisable to maintain flexible positions and avoid chasing highs.
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