Gate x Polymarket：Berapa kali Federal Reserve akan menurunkan suku bunga pada tahun 2026?

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path has always been a “barometer” for the crypto market—cutting rates releases liquidity and drives risk assets higher; raising or maintaining tight policy suppresses valuation expansion. Entering the second quarter of 2026, market expectations for rate cuts have experienced a “sharp turn.” As of April 16, what signals do the data from the two major prediction platforms, CME FedWatch and Polymarket, actually send?

CME FedWatch: Zero probability of rate cuts before June

According to the latest data from CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch” tool on April 16, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in April is as high as 98.4%, with only a 1.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike. More importantly, market pricing shows that the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut by June is 0%, with a 98% chance of holding rates unchanged, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike rising to 2%.

This means that before mid-year, traders have completely ruled out the possibility of rate cuts, and have even started pricing in the “reverse option” of rate hikes. From an annual perspective, CME’s tools show that the market currently estimates the probability of the Fed cutting rates by the end of the year at about 29%, significantly down from 40% a month ago. The full-year rate cut expectation has been sharply compressed from 2 to 3 times down to at most once, with the first rate cut window delayed until after September.

Polymarket: The “voting” result of prediction markets

Polymarket is another important window into rate cut expectations, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants through real-money bets.

According to information released by the Gate platform, as of early April, Polymarket’s prediction market shows that the probability of the Fed making zero rate cuts in 2026 has surpassed 39%, with a short-term surge of 24%; the probability of three rate cuts is only 9%, with a short-term decline of 28%. This data intuitively reflects that market confidence in rate cuts within the year is rapidly dissipating. Previously, in mid-March, bets on Polymarket still showed a 30% chance of one rate cut (25 basis points), a 23% chance of no cuts, and a 23% chance of two cuts (50 basis points), with trading volume exceeding $10.25 million. As CPI data for March was released and Middle East tensions continued to ferment, expectations for rate cuts further tilted toward “0 times.”

The Fed dot plot: From 3 to 1 “sudden brake”

If prediction markets reflect traders’ short-term sentiment, then the official Fed dot plot represents policymakers’ medium- to long-term baseline judgment.

By the end of 2025, the median forecast of Fed officials still indicates a 75 basis point (about 3 times) rate cut in 2026. But after the March FOMC meeting in 2026, the dot plot sharply compressed this number to just 25 basis points (only once), with four members even believing that rate cuts should not happen at all this year. The meeting maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%—3.75% with an 11:1 vote, with only Board member Milan supporting a 25 basis point cut.

Bull-bear game: 1, 2, or 0 cuts?

The March 2026 FOMC meeting minutes show that there are serious disagreements within the Fed regarding the interest rate path, with opinions almost evenly split on zero, one, or two rate cuts. This disagreement also exists among institutional analysts:

• The “one cut” camp: Analyst Bai Xue from Dongfang Jincheng believes that, based on the March dot plot, Powell’s statements, and geopolitical factors, there is a high probability of one rate cut in 2026, most likely in September. Yellen also believes there might be a rate cut later this year.
• The “two cuts” camp: Bank of America maintains forecasts of 25 basis point cuts in September and October, totaling 50 basis points for the year, but admits that “our forecast is not very solid, and risks lean toward no rate cuts this year.” Goldman Sachs also maintains expectations of 25 basis point cuts in September and December.
• The “no cuts or even hikes” camp: Former dovish official Goolsbee stated that if oil prices remain high long-term, rate cuts could be delayed until after 2027. Some traders have even begun pricing in the possibility of rate hikes before the end of 2026.

Why has the rate cut expectation cooled so sharply?

Two core variables have driven the rapid shift in rate cut expectations.

First, inflation rebound. US March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, significantly accelerating from 2.4% in February; month-over-month, it increased by 0.9%, the largest single-month increase since June 2022. The energy index surged 10.9% month-over-month, with gasoline prices soaring 21.2%, contributing nearly 70% of the overall CPI increase.

Second, employment resilience. In March, non-farm employment increased by 178,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 60,000, reaching the highest level since December 2024, with the unemployment rate falling back to 4.3%. The strong job market provides the Fed with confidence to “hold steady.”

Potential impact on crypto assets

For crypto investors, the evolution of rate cut expectations means the pace of liquidity release remains uncertain. As noted by Gate platform analysis, the crypto market is also at a critical juncture— as of April 13, Bitcoin price is $71,216.2, Ethereum at $2,203.29, and GT at $6.61. Against the backdrop of macro rate uncertainty and crypto assets’ wide volatility, investors can focus on the principal-protected and floating tools within the Gate financial product matrix, adjusting flexibly according to their risk appetite.

Summary

Combining CME FedWatch, Polymarket prediction markets, the Fed dot plot, and views from major institutions, as of April 16, 2026, market expectations for the number of Fed rate cuts this year have been sharply compressed from 2-3 times at the beginning of the year to 0-1 times. Polymarket data shows the probability of “0 rate cuts” has surpassed 39%, while CME FedWatch indicates the probability of rate cuts before June is 0%. The rebound in inflation and strong employment in March are the core drivers of this shift. Although some institutions (like BofA and Goldman Sachs) still forecast 1-2 rate cuts, there is a consensus that the risks are clearly skewed toward no cuts. The trajectory of Middle East tensions and upcoming inflation data will be key variables in determining the number of rate cuts. Investors should stay flexible and continue monitoring macro data and market signals on the Gate platform.