#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting, but the rare 8:4 voting result revealed the most serious internal rift since 1992, with policy direction shifting from the previous "rate cut consensus" to "bipolar uncertainty."

The specific details of this "split" are as follows:
· Rare "bipolar" split: The four dissenting votes did not share the same stance. Dissenting director Milan advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut; three hawkish regional Fed presidents supported unchanged rates but strongly opposed language in the statement that hinted "the next step could be a rate cut," believing that the option to raise rates should be retained.
· The game behind the wording: The market generally interprets the "further adjustments" retained in the statement as a signal of a rate cut. Hawkish officials like Kashkari explicitly pointed out that, given current inflation and geopolitical situations, this forward guidance is no longer appropriate, and the next step could be a rate hike.
· Shift in institutional expectations: Institutions like JPMorgan predict that the Fed may hold steady throughout 2026, with rate hike risks emerging by 2027, which is a stark contrast to the rate cut expectations at the beginning of the year.
Apart from the rate divergence, this meeting was also Powell's "farewell show" as chairman, leaving a more complex situation for his successor:
· Powell breaking tradition by staying on: After stepping down as chairman on May 15, Powell will break a 75-year tradition by remaining as a Fed director until 2028. Although he promised to "stay low-profile," this means the new chairman will face a highly influential predecessor at the meetings.
· New chairman facing a "big test": The nominee, Kevin Woor, will take over a committee divided into three factions between rate cuts, hold steady, and rate hikes. He also needs to address stubborn inflation driven by the Middle East situation (core PCE rising to 3.2%) and political pressures.
These "split" signals directly impact the market. After the decision was announced, traders increased the probability of a rate hike before April 2027 from 20% to 55%, the dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.95, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also increased to 4.40%.
The Fed's next decision will largely depend on how the Middle East situation evolves and oil prices trend.