Approximately 10.46 million BTC are currently held below acquisition cost, according to recent Glassnode data highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez. This represents roughly half of Bitcoin's circulating supply. The metric has reached this threshold as Bitcoin trades around $63,242, following a decline of more than 40% over the previous year. Historically, periods when more than 10 million BTC sit at a loss have coincided with major market bottoms.
Bitcoin Supply in Loss Reaches 10.46 Million Coins
Glassnode's Total Supply in Loss metric shows that 10.46 million BTC are currently being held at a loss. Given Bitcoin's circulating supply of just under 21 million coins, this figure represents approximately 50% of all coins in existence.
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The balance between profitable and unprofitable holdings has shifted considerably. As Bitcoin's price retreated from its highs, the number of coins held in profit contracted while the amount of supply sitting at a loss expanded. By June 2026, the latter had risen to roughly 10.46 million BTC.
Historical Patterns and NUPL Indicator Show Sentiment Deterioration
Previous major bottoms have frequently developed when the amount of BTC held at a loss climbed beyond 10 million coins. Similar conditions emerged during some of the market's deepest corrections, many of which later gave way to prolonged recoveries.
Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has fallen into the "Hope--Fear" zone after spending much of the previous year in more optimistic territory. Historically, these lower NUPL ranges have reflected periods when confidence has been shaken.
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Martinez Analysis on Reduced Selling Pressure
Martinez argues that elevated loss holdings can reduce the intensity of selling activity. When large numbers of investors are already deeply underwater, the incentive to liquidate positions often diminishes. Rather than locking in losses, many holders choose to wait, causing selling pressure to gradually weaken.
The combination of more than 10 million BTC in loss, weak sentiment indicators, and a steep decline from previous highs has historically appeared near major market bottoms. The scale of unrealized losses across the network indicates that Bitcoin is trading in a zone often associated with accumulation and recovery phases in previous cycles.
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FAQ
What does it mean when 10.46 million BTC are held at a loss?
It means approximately 10.46 million Bitcoin are currently held by addresses that acquired them at prices higher than the current market price of around $63,242, according to Glassnode data. This represents roughly 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply of just under 21 million coins.
Why is the 10 million BTC loss threshold historically significant?
Previous major market bottoms have frequently developed when the amount of BTC held at a loss climbed beyond 10 million coins. Similar conditions emerged during some of the market's deepest corrections, many of which later gave way to prolonged recoveries, according to historical on-chain data patterns.
What does the NUPL indicator show about current market conditions?
Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has fallen into the "Hope--Fear" zone after spending much of the previous year in more optimistic territory. Historically, these lower NUPL ranges have reflected periods when confidence has been shaken across the market.
