Legislative Process Deep Dive — Committee Approval Is Just the “First Step of the Long March”

Senate Banking Committee passes 15:9 — how far is it from formal legislation?

On May 14, the Clarity Act successfully passed the Senate Banking Committee with a result of 15 votes in favor and 9 against. The news excited many people in the crypto industry, but I have to pour a bucket of cold water: committee approval is only the first narrow gate in the entire legislative process, and there are three more hurdles ahead that will be even harder to cross.

First hurdle: Full Senate vote
At present, out of 100 Senate seats, Democrats hold 51 (including 3 independent senators), and Republicans hold 49. As the Clarity Act is a regulatory framework that leans toward the crypto industry, Republicans overall are more supportive, but there are serious divisions within the Democratic Party—progressives worry that easing regulation could lead to insufficient investor protection, while moderates are optimistic about blockchain innovation. To reach the 60-vote “cloture threshold” (the filibuster threshold), at least 9–10 Democratic senators would need to defect. In the committee vote, 2 Democratic senators voted in favor, which is a positive signal, but the pressure for the full Senate vote is far greater than in the committee.

Second hurdle: House coordination
Even if the Senate passes it, it still needs to be coordinated with the House version. The House is currently controlled by Republicans with a slim 218:217 advantage. The chair of the House Financial Services Committee, Mike Henr y (Patrick McHenry), is a firm supporter of the Clarity Act, but House Democratic leaders have already stated that they “need stricter investor protection provisions.” If the two versions cannot reach agreement on key provisions—such as the SEC and CFTC jurisdiction split, definitions of decentralization, and stablecoin regulation—the bill could be stuck in a long stalemate in a conference committee.

Third hurdle: Presidential signature
Even if both chambers pass it, President Biden still has veto power. In 2025, Biden vetoed a resolution to repeal SEC Accounting Bulletin SAB 121, citing “protection for investors.” If the Clarity Act is seen as weakening the SEC’s regulatory authority, a veto is not out of the question. Of course, 2026 is a midterm election year, and Biden may compromise under pressure from crypto voters.

In summary, the symbolic significance of committee approval outweighs its substantive value. Optimistically, the full Senate vote could happen as early as June, House coordination could take place in July–September, and presidential signing could happen as early as the end of the year. But each step could get stuck. On Polymarket, the probability of “legislation in 2026” is currently about 45%. I think that’s overly optimistic; a more reasonable estimate is 35–40%. I would choose “No.”
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