# USMayPCEInflationRisesTo4.1%HighestIn3Years

On June 25, the US Commerce Department reported that the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023 and up from 3.8% in April. Core PCE rose 3.4% year-over-year, the highest since October 2023. The Middle East conflict driving energy prices higher was the primary driver. Although a US-Iran ceasefire has been signed, inflation is expected to remain elevated for some time. Following the PCE data, market bets on a Fed rate hike in July intensified, with the dollar index rising to a one-year high of 101.52 and gold falling to near seven-month lows.