Beijing time Monday 5:30, Trump announced with a strong stance that the agreement with Iran has been completed, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open for free navigation. At the same time, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister confirmed that an agreement with the United States has been reached, with the formal signing ceremony scheduled for June 19. U.S. Vice President Vance stated that Trump may attend the signing ceremony, and the U.S. side is still arranging logistics for the trip. First, neither side has published the text of the agreement, but its general framework has been circulating for several days, which seems to be an agreement both sides can declare as a "victory." Bloomberg quoted a U.S. official saying that Iran will receive corresponding economic rewards each time it meets a series of demands made by the U.S. (this is a highly conditional, step-by-step "compliance-for-benefits" memorandum). Second, this news was deliberately announced half an hour before the global markets opened, as closer to the opening it can have a deeper impact on the markets. Oil prices opened down 4%, gold, silver, U.S. stock futures, and U.S. Treasuries all rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.43%. Third, it is noteworthy that most market volatility occurred within the first 10 minutes before opening, i.e., between 6:00 and 6:10. From 6:11 onwards, oil prices stopped falling, and gold and U.S. stock futures turned downward. This appears somewhat like "buy the rumor, sell the fact" combined with "liquidity vacuum repair." During Asian and European trading hours, oil prices are the barometer; in the evening, U.S. stocks become the barometer. Today is only the first half of the geopolitical game. From now until the formal signing ceremony on June 19, the market will be in an extremely sensitive "news vacuum and verification period," where any small movement could trigger repeated tug-of-war by high-frequency funds.

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EthWalletGod
· 10h atrás
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