Don't be influenced by Iran's rhetoric! Crude oil $CL Gold $XAU It's time to cool down, don't blindly chase highs.

Many people see Iran's statements and think oil and gold will skyrocket; I'll give a direct conclusion: this wave of sentiment is overblown, and crude oil and gold don't have the foundation for a sustained rally. Chasing long positions is like walking into a trap.
First, look at Iran's two core statements: no war, no abstention. Basically, it's just talk without action.
Saying no war means they are clearly afraid to fight seriously or completely block the Strait of Hormuz. If they did, the U.S. would intervene directly, and Iran wouldn't be able to withstand it. The so-called non-abstention and control phase are more about posturing and drawing red lines, aiming to pressure the U.S. and raise oil prices to negotiate better terms. It’s not about launching a full-scale conflict.
The so-called "soft blockade and open control" sounds intimidating, but in reality, it’s just controlled tension—neither willing to escalate to war nor truly cut off global oil shipments. Such geopolitical frictions have occurred many times in history; each time, prices spike then fall back, and none have kept oil prices high for long.
Now, look at the market:
Currently, the rise in crude oil and gold is driven by risk aversion, not real supply and demand.
Global economic recovery is not strong, and crude oil demand can't support a big surge; gold is even more driven by sentiment. Once the situation eases slightly, funds will move out faster than anyone.
Iran's goal has never been war but to gain the maximum benefit with minimal cost. Once this wave of sentiment subsides, the so-called "oscillating upward" will turn into a sharp rise followed by a fall. The previous rapid increase will be met with a fierce correction.
Don't believe in "bottoms being nailed down, buy on dips." The current levels are already high, and sentiment is severely overextended.
From a rational perspective: in the short term, crude oil and gold are in a bull trap. A correction and weakening are highly likely, and blindly going long will only trap you at high levels. $XAUT $XTIUSD ‌ ‌
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