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Energy shock has brought inflation back, the Fed's hands are tied!!
The US March inflation data has been announced:
Confirmed the "hot" scenario expected in the markets. The annual inflation (CPI), influenced by the rise in energy costs, showed a sharp increase from 2.4% in February to 3.3%.
I can summarize the possible and actual effects of these data on asset classes as follows:
1. Gold and Silver (Ounce)
Short-term Pressure: Higher-than-expected inflation will cause the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, raising the dollar index (DXY) and bond yields. This may create selling pressure on gold and silver, which do not generate interest.
Medium-term Protection: However, the geopolitical risks behind this inflation increase (like an energy shock) could keep gold's "safe haven" demand alive. Silver may follow a more volatile path due to industrial demand and its correlation with gold.
2. US Stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq)
Negative Effect: Inflation above expectations reinforces the message of "higher interest rates for a longer period." This especially negatively impacts the valuation of technology stocks.
Cost Increase: Rising operating costs for companies and concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending could lead to profit-taking in stock indices.
3. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
Risk Appetite: Since Bitcoin has recently been moving as a "risk asset," expectations of tight monetary policy may increase liquidity concerns and pressure its price.
Digital Gold Thesis: On the other hand, if inflationary processes in fiat currencies deepen, Bitcoin's limited supply could come back into focus as a "hedging tool." However, the initial reaction is usually a downward movement with the dollar's strengthening.
4. Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100)
Indirect Effect: A decrease in global risk appetite could trigger capital outflows from emerging markets (EM).
Dollar/TL Connection: High interest rates in the US could exert upward pressure on the Dollar/TL. While this may support exporting companies, it could also be challenging for overall market sentiment (in terms of foreign investor interest).
In summary: Currently, the market is dominated by the fear of "Will the Fed not cut interest rates?" This situation is strengthening the dollar and triggering a "wait-and-see" or "profit-taking" phase in gold, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.