Behind the Rise of DeFi—Signals Revealed by On-Chain Data

#Crypto Market Rebound

During this rebound, the DeFi sector is up 5.00% over the past 24 hours, outperforming the broader market. Is this merely sentiment repair, or are on-chain fundamentals quietly changing?

Look at a few key indicators: Aave’s TVL has grown 8.3% over the past 24 hours, Uniswap’s daily trading volume has rebounded to $4.2 billion, and Lido’s stETH premium has turned positive. This suggests it’s not just speculative capital coming in—some “smart money” is redeploying within the DeFi ecosystem. At the same time, open interest in the derivatives market has not increased significantly, meaning the rebound is not driven by leverage and is relatively healthy.

The deeper logic is that geopolitical conflicts have disrupted traditional financial settlement channels, while DeFi’s permissionless nature and global liquidity characteristics instead make it a “hedging tool.” Some funds from the Middle East are entering the Ethereum ecosystem via USDT/DAI.

If a short-term compromise between the two sides is reached, DeFi could become the leader of this rebound, with a target upside of 15%-20%. But note that regulatory risk is always hanging overhead. It is recommended to focus on sub-sectors with stronger compliance attributes, such as LSD and RWA, and avoid high-leverage protocols.