$BTC Once again attacking the long-term short, shorting in batches above 77,000

Yesterday, BTC saw a large number of orders at 76,000 on the order book; the price made a false breakout, and the market indeed dropped. If you follow the strategy I’ve been mentioning—trading the false breakout and shorting—you could capture a short-term profit here. However, I personally believe that the shorts are too crowded at this level, and the funding rate is quite negative. It’s still more prudent to wait for the price to go higher before shorting, with the key resistance level at 78,000 as a reference, as mentioned yesterday.

If the price tests below this level and most shorts stop out, and it breaks above the previous key resistance at 76,000, along with a breakout of the daily downtrend line, isn’t this the best trap structure? The market will be optimistic, with bullish voices ringing out, and the bull return will be rapid. At this point, shorts should take losses, and longs should chase. Compared to now, wouldn’t this be more conducive to a decline rather than squeezing with the crowd and shorting now?

From the daily chart, BTC is still under pressure from the upper Bollinger Band. Based on experience, a genuine breakout followed by a decline would be more reasonable. If there’s a slight pullback below 76,000 recently, it shouldn’t be seen as a trend reversal, only as a high-level resistance oscillation. There’s still a need for a rebound later unless a large bearish candle indicates a clear decline. From the current position, it’s close but not quite there yet. However, note that BTC is experiencing continuous net outflows; the recent rise is driven by contract buying.

In other words, the price increase is a false move. Be aware of the risk of a sharp decline later. From a smaller timeframe, the market remains in an uptrend, with higher lows and higher highs. Yesterday, after testing the previous high of 73,700 supported the rebound, showing a clear oscillating upward rhythm. A break below the swing low of 70,500 would signal a trend reversal, but since it’s still far, we can look at the trend line. Support is around 72,000; breaking below that would change the upward momentum.

In summary, I still maintain yesterday’s view: when near 78,000, long-term shorts are possible. It might not reach there, but once above 77,000, you can start to enter in batches. I’m looking to trap shorts with stop-losses and induce longs. I don’t want to stand with the majority of shorts because this is a liquidity game. If there’s an early decline, the entry points will change based on the magnitude and speed. But my short-term view remains unchanged: whether the recent market is a bull’s prosperity or a bear’s carnival, let’s wait and see.