The ongoing war has completely transformed the polymarket. The prediction markets regarding the conflict between the United States and Iran have seen an extraordinary surge over the past few weeks.

Traders are betting on every scenario, from the timing of a ceasefire, regime change in Iran, to the possibility of U.S. ground invasion. As a result, just the contract on whether the U.S. will attack Iran reached a trading volume of $529 million. It is one of the largest markets in polymarket history.

To understand the scale of this figure, a comparison is necessary. The contract asking "Will Ayatollah Ali Khamenei relinquish power by March 31?" recorded $45 million in trades, with the top trader account "Curseaaaaaaa" alone making a profit of $757,000. Four other traders also earned six-figure profits.

Among the current wars, the market’s response speed is astonishing. Within 24 hours of the U.S. attack on Iran on February 28, on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six wallets. These wallets collectively made a profit of $1.2 million. The largest wallet turned about $61,000 into over $493,000.

This suspicious trading pattern strongly suggests the existence of insider information. Most wallets had funds injected within 24 hours of the attack, especially concentrated around the contract on February 28, rather than over a broader period. These are traders who bought "Yes" shares just hours before the military operation began.

The market for a ceasefire currently estimates only a 4 percent chance of a ceasefire by March 2 and 15 percent by March 6. However, by March 31, the probability jumps to 61 percent, and by April 30, it reaches 78 percent. Bettors are pricing in a resolution within weeks, not months.

The market valuation for "Will the Iranian regime collapse by June 30?" has reached 54 percent. This is a sharp rise from levels in the low 20s percent over the past few months. Additionally, in the "Next Supreme Leader of Iran" market, "Position Abolished" is indicated at a 30 percent probability, with bettors nearly one-third considering the possibility that theocratic rule may not survive.

Contracts related to ground invasion are also driving actual trading volume. The contract "U.S. troops will enter Iran by March 7" is traded at 28 percent, with a trading volume reaching $2 million.

Through this war, polymarkets are achieving what is structurally and legally impossible in traditional markets. Stocks and oil futures do not resume trading until Sunday evening. But in polymarkets, anyone holding a crypto wallet can take positions on Iran regime change over the weekend, and real-time prices can be seen from thousands of participants doing the same.

The platform is aware of its own image. Polymarkets has established a dedicated section for Middle East markets, claiming that prediction markets "can provide answers that TV news or X cannot."

By the way, the recent movement of XRP is also interesting. Supported by strong trading volume and whale accumulation, it is rising but still remains within a broad downtrend. As of April 15, it hovers around $1.36, down 0.65 percent in 24 hours. The integration of XRP into Rakuten’s payment app, targeting 44 million users, marks an important step toward real-world adoption in Japan. Traders see a break above $1.40 to $1.42 as key to indicating stronger upward momentum.