Nasdaq hits new highs soon, is the bull market back?

The war isn't over yet, but the market seems to be pricing it in early.

Almost all assets are rising
Since March 27, the S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 10%, aiming for its third consecutive week of gains. The Nasdaq 100 rose even more, up about 12% in total, marking ten straight trading days of gains, the longest streak since 2021. U.S. stocks closed higher: Dow up 0.66%, S&P up 1.18%, Nasdaq up 1.96%. Crypto-related stocks surged across the board: Robinhood rose over 10% in a single day, Circle nearly 7%, Coinb 5.65%, Riot 4.32%. The Japanese and Korean markets are also following suit. The Nikkei 225 opened up 0.71%, breaking 58,000 points for the first time since March. The KOSPI opened up 2.98%, at 6,145.62 points.

On the Bitcoin side, on Tuesday, it reached a high of $76,120, a new high since February 6, successfully reclaiming the critical support zone of $75,000. Analyst CryptoBlockto pointed out that Bitcoin has broken above the ascending triangle’s upper trendline at $73,000, with the daily RSI rising to 63. The next target is $80,000, with a measured move to $89,050, about 18% above the current price. On-chain Bitcoin data is even more noteworthy. Since 2026, the average daily number of Bitcoin transactions has increased by 62%, reaching 765,130 on April 5, a 17-month high.
Analyst CW8900 said directly: "The current daily Bitcoin transaction count is higher than when BTC was at $120,000, indicating a bullish market behavior." Of course, not everything is optimistic. Crypto market funding rates show that both BTC and ETH on major platforms like Bn are in negative territory, with short positions paying longs to maintain their positions. Sentiment-wise, bearish signals have not yet dissipated. But the market seems to be rising on expectations of an end to the war.
Goldman Sachs' Delta One head Rich Privorotky explained well: "The market seems to have declared victory in the war with Iran, even though the conflict itself isn't truly over." Tom Lee's interpretation is even more straightforward. In an interview with CNBC, he said defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month, potentially rising to $60 billion, which has a significant stimulative effect on the economy. Oil prices have risen by $20, adding about $12 billion per month to household burdens. "Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits right now." He cited World War II as a precedent: U.S. stocks bottomed in May 1942, just five months after entering the war, when not a single soldier had yet set foot on European or Pacific battlefields. "Markets are good at pricing in outcomes in advance. The fact that stocks are rising means the market is pricing in a favorable outcome." The upcoming second round of negotiations, which may be facilitated by geopolitical easing, could be the reason for this. Trump reiterated on Fox News on April 14: "The Iran conflict is nearing its end." He added, "I think Iran really wants to reach an agreement now." He also revealed to the New York Post that a new round of US-Iran talks "may take place in Pakistan within the next two days." This follows the "long but inconclusive" Islamabad meeting last Saturday.
The US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 Beijing time, with a deadline of April 22. According to Russian sources citing Arab diplomatic officials, discussions to extend the ceasefire are ongoing. Who will represent the US? Trump hasn't clarified, but confirmed he won't attend himself. According to CNN sources, if a new face-to-face meeting can be arranged before the ceasefire expires, Vice President Vance is expected to lead the second round of negotiations. Vance said he will continue efforts to secure the "big deal" Trump hopes to reach with Iran.
After the news broke, WTI crude oil plunged about 4% in the Asian session on Wednesday. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is improving. According to WSJ, over the past 24 hours, more than 20 cargo ships, container ships, and oil tankers have crossed the strait, though still only a small fraction of pre-war levels. BCA Research chief US investment strategist Doug Peta said: "As earnings season kicks off, company fundamentals are now more strongly driving stock prices than headlines about Iran." The noise of war persists. But the market is choosing to look forward.