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$RIVER The average long position price has dropped from 16.9 two days ago to 9.8, which indeed means the bullish whales have been wiped out.
This isn't them actively cutting losses, but being liquidated as the price keeps falling.
The price dropped from 16 to over 4, most of the whales who opened longs at high levels couldn't hold on and got liquidated long ago.
The remaining are either small long positions bottom-fishing at low levels or leftover traders holding on stubbornly without being liquidated, so the average price has been pulled down.
Currently, most long positions are trapped positions, with little fighting power.
The bearish whales' positions have decreased, not because of a reversal, but because the "phase of harvesting" is over.
The likely script for the big market makers moving forward:
Now, all the longs are trapped positions, and the bears have made enough profit.
The most probable move by the market makers is "whipsaw +诱多 (诱导多头,诱多 means诱导多头, luring longs)."
First, they will oscillate sideways at low levels, forcing the trapped longs to hold and get liquidated.
Occasionally, they will trigger a small rebound to trick retail traders into buying the dip,
and also bury the newly entered longs.
Once enough chips are accumulated, they might really push for a rally, but it's obviously not the right time yet.
We can wait a bit longer.
In simple terms: The bullish whales have indeed been wiped out, but the bears are only temporarily holding back, not reversing.
Now entering to buy the dip will most likely get caught in the market makers'诱多 trap.