【】On June 14, local time, the US Federal Reserve Board concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting and announced that it would maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate of 5% to 5.25%, which was in line with previous market expectations. The "pause button" was pressed for the first time since the start of the radical interest rate hike cycle in March. Since the start of the rate hike cycle last year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times in a row, with a cumulative rate hike of 500 basis points. The federal benchmark interest rate has also risen from 0%-0.25% to 5%-5.25%. The U.S. CPI rose by 4% year-on-year in May, hitting a new low in more than two years. Analysts pointed out that the Fed’s suspension of interest rate hikes is likely due to the fact that U.S. inflation has cooled significantly. The lagged impact of tighter credit on the economy, especially in the banking sector. On the 13th, the day before the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the US CPI data for May was released, up 4% year-on-year, hitting a new low in March 2021, which is more than two years ago, excluding the volatile energy and food. The monthly core CPI rose by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate also slowed down. The market expects that the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle has not yet ended and will continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Given that the current inflation level in the United States is still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, market participants generally believe that the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle has not yet reached the "end". For the follow-up policy path, the futures market agrees that the terminal interest rate of this cycle will be 5.25%-5.50%, which means that compared with the current interest rate level, there is still room for 25 basis points to raise interest rates. Raise interest rates in September, the current market divergence. In addition, the market also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as the end of this year.