In the first half of 2026, the valuation curve of AI startup Anthropic has redefined the boundaries of tech business history. From a $380 billion valuation in its Series G round in February to reports of a post-money valuation reaching $950 billion in May, this five-year-old company is approaching the trillion-dollar threshold with an almost vertical growth trajectory. Yet, what’s even more noteworthy than the funding rounds themselves is the rise of a new pricing mechanism—prediction markets. As traditional valuation models struggle to keep pace with the exponential growth of AI companies, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are leveraging real-money trading data to provide a transparent, real-time quantification of market sentiment for unlisted AI giants such as Anthropic. So, what probability distributions are these betting data actually revealing? Can they serve as effective anchors for valuation?
Anthropic Valuation Probability Distribution Revealed by Polymarket Betting Data
As of May 20, 2026, the Polymarket contract "What will Anthropic’s valuation be by December 31, 2026?" has surpassed $180,000 in total trading volume. Polymarket divides the valuation range into multiple tiers, with betting probabilities decreasing stepwise as the target valuation increases. The data shows that the market assigns a 93% probability to Anthropic exceeding a $1 trillion valuation by year-end, 82% for surpassing $1.1 trillion, 54% for $1.5 trillion, and 33% for $2 trillion.
This probability distribution demonstrates a classic "high confidence concentrated above the trillion-dollar mark" pattern—the mainstream market expectation isn’t for moderate growth, but rather for Anthropic to leap past the trillion-dollar threshold by the end of the year. Notably, the funds betting on higher valuation tiers don’t drop to zero as targets rise: at $2.5 trillion, the probability remains at 16%, and above $3 trillion, it stays at 13%, indicating that some traders still see a chance for extreme high valuations.
Corroborating this absolute value contract are other related contracts on Polymarket. Data from the platform shows a 94% probability that Anthropic’s valuation will exceed OpenAI’s in 2026, and a roughly 69% probability that Anthropic will go public before OpenAI. These cross-contract data points converge on one conclusion: the market is not only highly optimistic about Anthropic’s absolute valuation, but also sees it as having a competitive edge.
Regarding competitor valuations, Polymarket traders assign a 76% probability to OpenAI reaching a $900 billion valuation by the end of 2026, while Anthropic’s probability of exceeding $1 trillion in the same period ranges from 88% to 93%. In direct comparison contracts, the implied probability stands at 64.5%, indicating that traders generally expect Anthropic to come out ahead in year-end valuation.
Kalshi’s Pricing of Anthropic IPO Timing
Another major prediction market platform, Kalshi, focuses more on the timing of Anthropic’s IPO. As of mid-May 2026, Kalshi data shows a 72% probability that Anthropic will announce an IPO before November 1, 2026. This data aligns with implied valuations in on-chain pre-IPO markets—according to Odaily, Anthropic’s implied valuation in blockchain-based pre-listing markets has reached $1.2 trillion, about 20% higher than OpenAI. If listed at this valuation, Anthropic could become the world’s 11th largest publicly traded company.
Kalshi’s presence in the prediction market space is equally significant. The platform recently completed a $1 billion funding round led by Coatue Management, bringing its post-money valuation to $22 billion and boasting about 2 million monthly active users. In April 2026, combined trading volume for Polymarket and Kalshi surpassed $150 billion, with monthly totals reaching $21.9 billion, together accounting for roughly 85% of prediction market activity. This scale signals that prediction markets are transitioning from niche on-chain applications to mainstream financial infrastructure.
How Funding Rounds and Market Expectations Reinforce Each Other
Betting probabilities in prediction markets don’t arise out of thin air. Over the past three months, Anthropic’s actual fundraising pace has provided strong fundamentals to support market expectations. In February 2026, Anthropic completed a $30 billion Series G round at a post-money valuation of $380 billion. Just three months later, The New York Times reported on May 13 that Anthropic was negotiating a new round of $30–50 billion in funding, which would push its post-money valuation to $950 billion. According to subsequent coverage by Cailian Press, as of May 15, Anthropic had finalized terms for a new round of up to $30 billion, with the post-money valuation soaring to about $900 billion.
Looking at the timeline, the acceleration in valuation growth is striking: Series E in March 2025 at $61.5 billion, Series F in September 2025 at $183 billion, Series G in February 2026 at $380 billion, and the reported $950 billion in May—over 15-fold growth in just 14 months.
Behind this valuation surge is explosive revenue expansion. Reports indicate Anthropic’s annualized revenue is expected to soon surpass $45 billion, up from just $9 billion at the end of 2025. Starting from approximately $10 million in revenue in 2022, Anthropic has achieved staggering growth in just four and a half years. In terms of market share, Anthropic’s slice of enterprise AI spending has jumped from about 10% at the start of 2025 to over 65% by February 2026, with a 54% share in programming, already significantly outpacing OpenAI.
These rapidly changing fundamentals explain why prediction markets are so heavily concentrated in the high valuation tiers—participants are quickly integrating real-time financial data into pricing mechanisms.
Can Prediction Markets Serve as Effective Valuation Tools?
Applying prediction markets to private company valuations isn’t just theoretical hype. In early 2026, researchers from London Business School and Yale University found that prediction markets are more accurate than sell-side analysts in forecasting corporate earnings, achieving a 68% accuracy rate for predicting earnings direction a week ahead, compared to analysts’ 62%. Wolfe Research further validated this: when Polymarket users bet a company would underperform expectations, their accuracy reached 44%, more than double the historical benchmark of 18%; when traders were highly confident a company would outperform, accuracy soared to 90%, above the industry average of 81%.
The core reason prediction markets are so accurate is that participants are wagering real money, incentivizing careful research and genuine information discovery. Unlike traditional sell-side analysts who may be influenced by investment banking relationships or trading commissions, prediction market incentives are more direct and transparent. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s partnership with Nasdaq Private Market enhances data authority and credibility—Nasdaq acts as the exclusive settlement data provider, enabling contracts to settle based on real secondary market trading data for private companies. For private companies like Anthropic, where public financial data is extremely limited, prediction markets offer a high-frequency, real-time market sentiment signal, especially useful in scenarios lacking comparable public company data and real-time private market information.
Of course, it’s important to acknowledge the limitations of this tool. Prediction markets essentially reflect "market sentiment" rather than audited financials, and their betting data can be affected by low liquidity, manipulation by large players, or information asymmetry. Still, for understanding AI companies like Anthropic, whose valuations are deeply tied to future expectations, prediction markets provide a valuable frontier perspective beyond traditional valuation methods.
Conclusion
Prediction markets are evolving from a relatively niche on-chain application into a vital information infrastructure for private company valuation. Polymarket’s 93% trillion-dollar expectation bets, Kalshi’s 72% IPO probability pricing, and their combined trading volume exceeding $150 billion together create a real-time quantitative picture of the market’s judgment of Anthropic’s future value. These probability data, driven by real funds and updated at high frequency, not only offer an extra reference dimension for traditional valuation models but are also gaining empirical recognition in academic research—multiple studies show prediction markets now outperform traditional sell-side analysts in earnings forecast accuracy. While they won’t fully replace traditional valuation frameworks based on financial data, prediction markets have proven their unique value as a real-time supplementary tool for capturing market sentiment and aggregating diverse information in private company valuation. With Gate leading the way in integrating Polymarket, becoming the first major crypto platform to bring prediction markets into a centralized trading system, regular users can now participate in this cutting-edge financial practice with lower barriers, tracking collective market pricing of future events in real time.
FAQ
Q1: How accurate are prediction markets in valuing private companies?
Multiple studies show prediction markets are more accurate than sell-side analysts in forecasting corporate earnings. Research from London Business School and Yale University found prediction markets achieved a 68% accuracy rate for predicting earnings direction a week ahead, compared to analysts’ 62%. Wolfe Research further noted that when prediction market users were highly confident a company would outperform, accuracy reached 90%. However, it’s important to note these studies are based on earnings forecast data; for the relatively new category of private company valuation, accuracy still needs further validation over time.
Q2: What are the main prediction contracts about Anthropic on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Currently, the most active contracts on Polymarket include: whether Anthropic’s valuation will reach $1 trillion by the end of 2026, whether it will surpass OpenAI, and whether it will go public before OpenAI. Kalshi mainly prices the probability of Anthropic announcing an IPO before November 2026. Settlement of these contracts relies on authoritative data sources like Nasdaq Private Market, ensuring reliability and transparency.
Q3: How can ordinary users participate in prediction market trading?
In March 2026, Gate officially integrated Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, becoming the first centralized crypto exchange to do so. Users only need to update the Gate App to version v8.12.5 or higher, log in, and access the "Polymarket" module under the "Alpha" page to participate in prediction trading directly with USDT—no external wallet connection or complex DeFi processes required. Gate offers both prediction and trading modes, catering to the needs of regular users and professional traders alike.
Q4: What are the limitations of prediction markets?
Key limitations include: liquidity may be insufficient for some niche contracts; a few professional players may capture most profits through information advantages; and certain contracts may face insider trading risks. Additionally, prediction market prices reflect market sentiment rather than audited financials, making them better suited as supplementary tools for traditional valuation analysis rather than outright replacements.
Q5: What is Anthropic’s current actual valuation?
As of mid-May 2026, media reports indicate Anthropic has finalized terms for a new $30 billion funding round, with a post-money valuation of $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s estimated $852 billion valuation. It’s important to note this round has not officially closed, and terms may still be adjusted. The implied valuation in on-chain pre-IPO markets has already reached $1.2 trillion, reflecting the market’s divergent expectations for the company’s future value.
