With just nine days left until SpaceX officially lists on Nasdaq, global capital markets are turning their attention to this powerhouse spanning space launches, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence. On June 2 local time, foreign media, citing insiders, reported that SpaceX plans to issue approximately 556 million new shares at $135 per share, raising about $75 billion and valuing the company at roughly $1.75 trillion. If the deal proceeds as planned, it will surpass Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion record set in 2019, making it the largest IPO in global capital market history.
For participants in the crypto market, a core question emerges: Does this $75 billion fundraising mean a significant outflow of capital from crypto markets, potentially impacting Bitcoin and the overall crypto market cap?
SpaceX IPO Key Parameters and Timeline
SpaceX is scheduled to list on Nasdaq as early as June 12, trading under the ticker "SPCX." The company’s roadshow for institutional investors is expected to begin this week. According to the prospectus, SpaceX plans to start the roadshow on June 4, price shares on June 11, and officially list on June 12. Several top Wall Street investment banks are underwriting the deal, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley serving as lead underwriters.
Notably, this IPO uses an "all-primary offering" structure, meaning all shares issued are newly created by SpaceX rather than sold by existing shareholders. As a result, all funds raised will flow directly into the company to support future business expansion and capital expenditures, rather than serving as a cash-out channel for current investors or executives. Under phased lock-up arrangements, existing shareholders won’t be able to sell their shares until the company releases its first quarterly report after listing.
Given the massive scale of the transaction, SpaceX managed to reduce underwriting fees to below 0.75%, far lower than typical levels for large tech IPOs. The offering also includes a 15% overallotment option (green shoe mechanism) to accommodate potential excess market demand.
In terms of valuation, SpaceX’s target is currently around $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX will instantly rank among the world’s most valuable companies, surpassing the vast majority of US-listed firms. For comparison, as of late May 2026, Tesla’s market cap was about $1.63 trillion to $1.65 trillion, meaning SpaceX’s first-day valuation could exceed Tesla’s.
Is the Valuation Reasonable? Market Divisions Run Deep
Wall Street remains divided over SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation target.
Financially, according to SpaceX’s S-1 prospectus filed with the SEC, the company reported revenues of $10.387 billion, $14.015 billion, and $18.674 billion in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. Net profits over those years were losses of $4.628 billion, a profit of $791 million, and a loss of $4.937 billion. While SpaceX briefly turned a profit in 2024, its merger with xAI in February 2026 led to heavy AI investment and a return to losses. In Q1 2026, SpaceX posted a quarterly net loss of $4.276 billion, nearly matching its full-year loss for 2025.
From a business perspective, SpaceX divides its operations into three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. The Starlink satellite internet segment is currently the company’s only profitable business. In 2025, Starlink generated $11.387 billion in revenue, up 49.8% year-over-year, with operating profit of $4.423 billion, up 120.4%, accounting for 61% of SpaceX’s annual revenue. The Space segment, due to Starship R&D, posted an operating loss of $657 million in 2025. The AI segment, which includes xAI post-merger, saw an operating loss of $6.355 billion in 2025.
However, Starlink’s reliance introduces a red flag: average revenue per user (ARPU) continues to decline. According to the prospectus, Starlink subscribers’ monthly ARPU dropped from $99 in 2023 to $91 in 2024, $81 in 2025, and just $66 in Q1 2026—a cumulative decrease of 33%. The primary reason is SpaceX’s aggressive expansion into international and price-sensitive markets outside the US.
On the valuation debate, Morningstar recently released a report assigning SpaceX a fair value of about $780 billion—less than half the IPO target. Morningstar analysts cite extreme uncertainty in the company’s AI business, Grok’s disadvantage compared to OpenAI, long timelines and heavy investment for Starship and space computing centers, and governance concerns due to Musk retaining over 85% voting power as factors for a valuation discount.
PitchBook, a financial data firm specializing in private equity and venture capital, offers a more moderate assessment, suggesting SpaceX’s reasonable valuation is $1.5 trillion, with the remainder attributed to space and AI narratives plus the "Musk premium." Senior research analyst Franco Granda notes that while US aerospace valuations are high, the extra premium as SpaceX approaches $1.5–2 trillion reflects the market pricing in long-term dreams like AI business and space data centers—essentially a narrative premium for the company’s potential over the next 20 years.
Liquidity Impact Analysis: Three Facts to Understand the Real Relationship Between IPO and Crypto Markets
For crypto market participants most concerned with liquidity, a key logic must be clarified: Will the $75 billion raised in the IPO directly transfer from crypto markets to SpaceX? The answer depends on several conditions.
New capital vs. existing capital. The vast majority of the $75 billion raised will come from institutional and retail investors allocating new funds—money that was already on the sidelines or shifted from other traditional financial assets. Simplistically viewing IPO financing as "pulling $75 billion out of the crypto market" lacks a logical basis. Crypto participants selling BTC or ETH for fiat to join the IPO merely constitutes cross-asset allocation, and the scale cannot be equated to the total IPO fundraising.
Empirical evidence from historical data. Bitget Research Institute’s recent weekly report, citing Deutsche Bank’s analysis, notes that even the largest IPOs only impact markets by about 1%. Historically, IPO waves have acted more as lagging indicators of bull markets rather than triggers—IPOs do not cause sharp market declines, and may even lay the foundation for future bull runs. Data shows that during historical IPO waves, the S&P 500’s median return three months later was about 8%, and over 20% after twelve months.
Float ratio limits volatility. This IPO will sell less than 5% of SpaceX shares. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, the proportion of shares entering public markets is about 4–4.5%. The relatively small float naturally limits any "siphoning effect" on overall market liquidity.
At the same time, another viewpoint deserves attention. Media reports indicate investors are selling Bitcoin to raise funds, shifting to private markets, or participating in IPO subscriptions for major companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—these IPOs are among the most anticipated listings this year. Some analysts believe that if SpaceX is added to the Nasdaq 100 index within 15 trading days post-listing, passive funds will need to buy SpaceX and sell Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and other current constituents, potentially causing a large-scale capital siphoning effect. Since Bitcoin’s recent performance is highly correlated with large tech stocks, if tech stocks face pressure from index rebalancing, Bitcoin may also face short-term downside risk.
Starlink’s Profitable Foundation and AI Segment’s Cash Burn Dilemma
Understanding SpaceX’s valuation logic requires clarity on the distinct stages of its three business segments.
Connectivity Segment (Starlink): This is currently SpaceX’s only profitable business. As of March 31, 2026, Starlink had about 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries and regions, up from 5 million a year earlier—a 105% increase. These subscribers are served by roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit, all designed, manufactured, launched, and operated by SpaceX itself. Beyond broadband, SpaceX began deploying dedicated direct-to-mobile satellite constellations in January 2024. As of March 31, 2026, this constellation comprised about 650 satellites, covering around 30 countries and connecting about 7.4 million monthly active unique devices. The company plans to prioritize Starlink network upgrades in 2026, enter the direct-to-mobile satellite market in 2027, and launch orbital AI computing satellites in 2028.
Space Segment (Launch & R&D): As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX had completed roughly 650 orbital launches, including 170 in 2025, accounting for over 80% of global payload mass to orbit. In 2025, this segment generated $4.086 billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $657 million. SpaceX has invested over $15 billion in Starship heavy rockets, with about $3 billion spent in 2025 alone. Starship has completed its 12th test flight, and the prospectus projects formal orbital payload launches in the second half of 2026. With fully reusable design, Starship aims to reduce orbital costs to the $100-per-kilogram range.
AI Segment (xAI Integration): This is currently SpaceX’s biggest "cash burn" department. In Q1 2026, the AI segment generated $818 million in revenue but posted an operating loss of $2.469 billion, with adjusted EBITDA loss of $609 million. For all of 2025, the AI segment lost $6.355 billion. Capital expenditures for the AI segment reached $7.7 billion in Q1, over 75% of the company’s total capex of $10.1 billion. Industry analysts point out that the AI segment (including xAI, renamed "SpaceXAI" post-merger) contributed only about 7% of revenue in 2025 but resulted in $14 billion in free cash flow losses. They are pessimistic about Grok’s standalone profitability, believing losses may persist for five years or longer.
Crypto Market Liquidity Landscape Ahead of the IPO
The crypto market itself is in a liquidity contraction cycle. As of early June 2026, Bitcoin dipped to a low of $65,385, its lowest since February. Multiple institutions note that Bitcoin’s performance is highly correlated with large tech stocks, with BTC’s 30-day correlation to the Magnificent Seven ETF at about 0.81. Analysts believe that adjustment pressure on tech stocks due to index rebalancing may be transmitted to the crypto market.
On the macro front, the probability is high that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its June FOMC meeting, and this rate environment itself imposes systemic pressure on risk assets.
How Can Crypto Investors Participate in the SpaceX IPO?
For crypto market users interested in the SpaceX IPO, participating in this historic capital event is not simply a binary "buy or not buy" decision. From an asset allocation perspective, there are two main paths: directly investing in SpaceX stock (SPCX) via US equities, or monitoring liquidity shifts within the crypto market triggered by the IPO event and seeking allocation opportunities within crypto assets.
Participate in US Stock Allocation via Gate’s Stock Trading Section
On June 1, 2026, Gate officially launched real stock trading services, allowing users to trade US mainstream securities and ETFs directly with USDT on the platform. This launch marks Gate’s progress in bridging crypto assets with traditional financial markets, accelerating the construction of a unified trading and asset allocation system covering crypto assets, stocks, and global mainstream financial products.
Gate’s stock trading service connects to compliant brokers like Alpaca, which hold US Broker-Dealer licenses and clearing qualifications, providing direct access to US mainstream securities markets. Users can trade actual stocks and ETFs, not on-chain mapped assets or tokenized derivatives. Gate’s partner brokers are members of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), offering relevant protections for client securities assets under certain conditions. As of June 3, 2026, Gate supports over 10,000 stocks and ETF assets, covering the NYSE, Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, NYSE American, and BATS, as well as US liquidity networks. Whether it’s tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, or various industry-themed ETFs, users can execute trades within a familiar crypto trading interface.
In terms of trading costs, Gate’s stock spot trading has zero holding costs—no funding rates or overnight position fees—making it more suitable for users seeking long-term US equity allocation. When buying on Gate, users acquire the actual underlying assets traded on Nasdaq and NYSE, not derivative wrappers.
For operation, users simply need to update the Gate App to the latest version (iOS users require version 8.21.5), log in to their Gate account, complete KYC verification, enter the TradFi section’s stock area, and transfer USDT to start trading.
Liquidity Redistribution Opportunities Within the Crypto Market
Beyond direct US equity participation, the SpaceX IPO may trigger liquidity redistribution within the crypto market, presenting short-term opportunities. Deutsche Bank estimates that super-large IPOs impact markets by about 1%, and historically, three months after IPO waves, the S&P 500’s median return is around 8%, and over 20% after twelve months. If tech stocks face index rebalancing pressure, short-term volatility may create attractive risk-reward allocation windows.
From a valuation perspective, SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion IPO valuation serves as an important reference for crypto asset valuation systems. If Morningstar’s $780 billion fair value assessment is validated to some extent in post-listing market dynamics, or if SpaceX’s stock price fluctuates significantly after listing, it could prompt a revaluation of high-valuation tech assets—including crypto projects with narrative premiums.
Conclusion
SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut is one of the most iconic events in the capital markets for 2026. A $1.75 trillion valuation, $75 billion fundraising, and first-day trading under the SPCX ticker—these numbers are sure to capture global investor attention. For crypto market participants, rational analysis should move beyond the intuitive "IPO drains liquidity" narrative and return to fundamental macro variables: Is the current liquidity contraction in crypto markets driven by structural changes in interest rate policy cycles, or merely by the incidental impact of a single IPO?
Based on available data and historical patterns, the conclusion favors the former. Deutsche Bank’s analysis pegs SpaceX’s IPO impact on the crypto market at about 1%—a figure that, in the context of macro volatility, is almost background noise. What truly matters are the trajectory of interest rate environments, the evolution of tech stock valuation systems, and the growing correlation between crypto assets and traditional risk assets. Gate’s integrated stock trading channel now offers crypto users a compliant path to participate in US equity allocation within a unified account system, making cross-asset allocation flexibility increasingly accessible.
