12 AI Models Forecast Whether Satoshi's 1.1M Bitcoin Will Ever Move, Odds Range 3-20%

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According to Bitcoin.com News on July 3, twelve AI models including ChatGPT 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5, and Gemini 3.1 Pro used Bayesian reasoning to forecast the likelihood of Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million bitcoins ever moving. ChatGPT 5.5 estimated a 20% probability of movement, while Gemini 3.1 Pro put it under 5%. The models collectively converged on a consensus: Satoshi's bitcoin is unlikely to move, and the creator's identity is even less likely to be revealed. The extended wallet dormancy since 2010 and absence of verified claims formed the evidence-based foundation for these low probability estimates.
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