Anthropic filed a confidential IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, setting up what analysts call the most scrutinized public offering in tech history. The AI company hit a $965 billion valuation and reported a $47 billion revenue run rate towards the end of May. The filing follows months of momentum for Anthropic and comes as rival OpenAI also moves toward a public listing, marking the first major test of frontier AI company valuations in public markets where pure-play AI labs have until now avoided scrutiny.
Analysts Focus on Gross Margin as Key Valuation Metric
Harrison Rolfes, analyst at PitchBook, said the number that determines everything won't be the $965 billion valuation or the $47 billion revenue run rate, but gross margin. That figure refers to the percentage of revenue left after paying the costs of providing AI services. "No one outside Anthropic has ever seen [gross margin], and it will either validate or collapse the entire narrative the private markets have been pricing for three years," Rolfes said.
Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC that Anthropic's unprecedented growth supports a high valuation and the company "appears to have the lead" in the market for frontier AI models. However, several well-funded competitors vying for the same market, including Google, Meta, OpenAI and SpaceX, could disrupt that lead, Luria said. "Much of their current usage is for trials and experimentation and that may not sustain."
Eric Goodness, VP analyst at Gartner, said the disclosure "will not only reprice private competitors, but also provides insight to every enterprise attempting to value and price the future cost of intelligence in their company."
Related Tech Developments This Week
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share with a valuation of $1.77 trillion, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday. Rolfes noted that Anthropic's filing alongside SpaceX will be the largest concentration of capital ever brought to market simultaneously.
The European Commission on Wednesday proposed measures intended to bolster homegrown chips, AI and cloud services as the bloc seeks to develop tech sovereignty amid reliance on products and services from the U.S. and China.
Uber is cutting 23% of jobs in its people division as it seeks to streamline operations under new president Jill Hazelbaker.
Broadcom's stock plunged on Thursday after it posted weaker-than-expected revenue in its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the bell. The company, which designs and makes customized AI chips, led a broad sector sell-off as investors fled the semiconductor space.
Anthropic on Tuesday said an additional 150 partners will gain access to Mythos, its AI model that has proven adept at finding software vulnerabilities. Fintech startup Ramp is now valued at $44 billion as companies turn to its software to help rein in AI spending.
FAQ
What did Anthropic file on Monday?
Anthropic filed a confidential IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. The company hit a $965 billion valuation and reported a $47 billion revenue run rate towards the end of May.
Why is gross margin important for Anthropic's valuation?
Analysts say gross margin, which shows the percentage of revenue left after paying AI service costs, will determine whether Anthropic's valuation is justified. Harrison Rolfes of PitchBook stated that no one outside Anthropic has seen this figure, and it will either validate or collapse the narrative the private markets have been pricing.
What competitors does Anthropic face in the AI market?
According to Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson, Anthropic faces well-funded competitors including Google, Meta, OpenAI and SpaceX, all vying for the same frontier AI model market.
