Bernstein has initiated coverage of bitcoin miners TeraWulf and Cipher Digital with Outperform ratings, setting price targets of $36 and $32 respectively. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani positioned both companies as emerging AI infrastructure platforms with power advantages that new data center entrants cannot replicate, calling them "the power landlords of AI." The positioning reflects a strategic shift as the primary bottleneck for building new AI compute capacity moves decisively to grid-connected power, with miners leveraging brownfield sites, legacy grid positions, and multi-gigawatt power pipelines assembled over recent years.
Bernstein Projects Ninefold AI Revenue Growth Across Bitcoin Miner Sector by 2030
Bernstein projects aggregate AI revenue across its bitcoin miner coverage to expand ninefold from $1.2 billion in 2026 to $10.7 billion by 2030. Across the sector, miners have contracted out 6 gigawatts of power capacity to hyperscalers and neocloud operators across 17 deals worth more than $110 billion over the past two years, the firm said. These contracts represent roughly 10% of U.S. data centers currently under construction.
TeraWulf Contracts 643 Megawatts Under Deals Worth $13 Billion
For TeraWulf specifically, Bernstein sees AI revenue growing from $14 million in 2025 to $1.7 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 163%. The firm expects EBITDA margins to reach approximately 84% at maturity, with EBITDA growing from $106 million in 2026 to $1.4 billion by 2030.
TeraWulf has contracted 643 gross megawatts to Fluidstack and Core42 under deals spanning 10 to 25 years, representing roughly $13 billion in total contracted revenue, with approximately 91% tied to Fluidstack. The company's structural edge, according to Bernstein, lies in its acquisition-driven power strategy—redeveloping legacy industrial sites including a former coal-fired power plant at Lake Mariner, a retired coal plant at Lake Hawkeye, and a former aluminum smelter at its Justified Data campus in Kentucky. The firm estimates this approach cuts buildout capex to $7.2 million per IT megawatt against a peer industry benchmark of $11 to $13 million.
The 3.8 gigawatt portfolio spans New York, Kentucky, Maryland, and Texas. Bernstein values TeraWulf at 21x one-year forward EV/EBITDA on steady-state 2030 EBITDA, discounting the implied enterprise value back to arrive at its $36 target price. Upside beyond that figure would require new HPC contracts at the 480-megawatt Kentucky campus, which Bernstein models separately but does not include in its base case.
Cipher Digital Shifts to Investment-Grade Hyperscaler Contracts
For Cipher Digital, Bernstein projects AI revenue growing from $19 million in 2026 to $1.2 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of approximately 180%, with EBITDA margins stabilizing at 93%. Cipher Digital has contracted 495 IT megawatts across $11.4 billion in total revenue, with approximately 67% of the order book now backed by investment-grade hyperscalers, including AWS and an undisclosed third hyperscaler.
Bernstein singles out Cipher Digital's evolution across successive deals as evidence of improving negotiating leverage. Its first deal at Barber Lake was structured as a modified gross lease with Fluidstack, backstopped by a $1.7 billion Google guarantee. Its AWS contract at Black Pearl shifted to a triple-net structure, lifting net operating margins toward 100% and enabling the company to raise $2 billion in project financing at 6.125%—100 basis points tighter than the $1.7 billion raised for Barber Lake. A third 15-year campus lease with a still-unnamed investment-grade hyperscaler broadly follows the same template.
Bernstein Rates IREN Top Pick at $100 Target
Across the broader sector, Bernstein's top pick remains IREN, rated Outperform with a $100 price target, for its vertically integrated cloud model backed by a 5-gigawatt global power footprint and partnerships with Microsoft and NVIDIA. The firm also rates Core Scientific Outperform at $32, Riot Platforms Outperform at $30, and CleanSpark Outperform at $24, while carrying MARA at Market-Perform with a $17 target.
Counterparty Concentration Flagged as Primary Near-Term Risk
Bernstein flags counterparty concentration as the principal near-term risk for TeraWulf and Cipher Digital. Fluidstack accounts for approximately 91% of TeraWulf's contracted revenue, while AWS represents approximately 48% of Cipher Digital's. Ongoing grid approval processes—roughly 2 gigawatts of Cipher's pipeline remains unapproved—and the broader financing requirements for capital-intensive data center buildouts are also flagged as downside risks.
Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the debt securities of Riot Platforms.
FAQ
What did Bernstein set as price targets for TeraWulf and Cipher Digital?
Bernstein initiated coverage of TeraWulf with an Outperform rating and a price target of $36, and Cipher Digital with an Outperform rating and a price target of $32.
How much AI revenue does Bernstein project for the bitcoin miner sector by 2030?
Bernstein projects aggregate AI revenue across its bitcoin miner coverage to expand from $1.2 billion in 2026 to $10.7 billion by 2030, representing a ninefold increase.
What is the primary risk Bernstein identified for TeraWulf and Cipher Digital?
Bernstein flags counterparty concentration as the principal near-term risk, with Fluidstack accounting for approximately 91% of TeraWulf's contracted revenue and AWS representing approximately 48% of Cipher Digital's contracted revenue.
