Bitcoin Drops 50% From October 2025 Peak of $126K; Halving Cycle Pattern Still Holds

According to a report from Yonhapinfomax, Bitcoin dropped 50% from its October 6, 2025 peak of $126,000 and has remained weak for nine months. Despite expectations that the halving cycle would no longer apply in the ETF era, the current price decline follows the same timeline as previous cycles: the market peak occurred 535 days after the April 2024 halving, matching the 526–554 day pattern observed in 2017 and 2021.

The milder drawdown compared to prior cycles (estimated 50–60% versus historical declines of 77–85%) reflects Bitcoin's maturation as institutional capital, now the primary buyer through regulated ETFs, has replaced retail investors as the dominant force. This institutional consolidation has reduced extreme volatility. Meanwhile, retail liquidity has been diverted toward memcoins and equities, limiting the excessive enthusiasm that historically marked cycle peaks.