Bitcoin fell back to around $63,860 on July 17. At the same time, multiple macro events unfolded in parallel: the U.S. military launched airstrikes on several facilities in southern Iran, including Abbas Port, Shaher Airport, and bridges in Hormozgan Province. The Hormozgan provincial government said two people were killed and four were injured. Dallas Fed Chair Lorie Logan (Lorie Logan) delivered remarks in Houston, saying the Fed may need to raise interest rates “moderately.”
U.S. military carried out airstrikes on multiple Iranian facilities on July 16 to 17
The U.S. conducted military operations against multiple targets in Iran, involving the following locations:
Abbas Port communications tower (Hormozgan Province): hit by an airstrike; the communications tower was struck, and power was out in parts of the area
Abbas Port railway junction station (Hormozgan Province): hit by an airstrike; two people were injured
Hamir Port bridge (Hormozgan Province): struck by an airstrike late Thursday; the Hormozgan provincial government said two bridges across the province were attacked, with two people killed and four people injured
Shaher Airport (Sistan-Varaza?bistan Province): U.S. fighter jets carried out a missile strike; local residents reported hearing three explosions near the airport
Tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices to stay near a one-month high. Bart Melek, global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, said: “Oil prices are rising again. With Brent crude rising, I expect U.S. Treasury yields may continue to rise, and the Fed could even start rate hikes as early as September. These are the factors weighing on gold.”
Dallas Fed Chair Logan: Advocates a moderate rate hike but does not clearly state her July voting stance
As the Dallas Fed chair and a 2026 FOMC voting member, Logan delivered remarks in Houston on July 16, saying the improvement in June inflation data represents only one month of good numbers—far from enough to show that inflation is under control. To complete its mandate of restoring price stability, the Fed may need to raise interest rates “moderately.” In her speech, Logan directly quoted the following remarks: “Every month with inflation above target further squeezes the budgets of American households.” ; “One month of relief is not enough—now is the time to complete the job of restoring price stability.” ; “It’s better to tighten moderately now than to be forced to tighten substantially later.”
Logan also noted that even after excluding temporary factors such as falling energy prices and easing tariff effects, multiple core inflation indicators still remain clearly above the Fed’s 2% policy target. However, she did not explicitly say she would vote for a rate hike at the FOMC meeting on July 28 to 29, nor did she specify how much she believes rates need to be raised.
June CPI data: Down 0.4% month over month; Logan says it’s not enough to mean inflation is under control
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released this week’s report: in June 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% month over month, the largest one-month decline since April 2020. The year-over-year increase eased from 4.2% in May to 3.5%. A sharp drop in energy prices was the main reason overall inflation declined.
In response to this data during her July 16 speech, Logan said U.S. inflation has continued to stay above the Fed’s 2% target since 2021, and there is still a long way to go before true price stability is restored. She borrowed a hockey saying to argue that monetary policy must “slide toward where the puck is headed,” rather than focusing only on current data.
The CME “FedWatch” tool shows that as of July 17, traders are pricing in about a 53% chance of a rate hike in September. While the market generally views a July rate hike as less likely, expectations of at least one rate hike within the year are building.
Trump meets with senators to discuss the “CLARITY Act”: passage probability 41%
On July 16 (Thursday), President Trump met with Republican senators and senior advisers to discuss the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the “CLARITY Act,” while also addressing ethical issues that remain unresolved. Expected attendees include Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, as well as White House crypto adviser Patrick Witter; White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Christine Smith, head of policy research at the Solana Policy Institute, are also expected to attend.
Critics in the negotiations called for stronger limits on how federal officials can use digital assets for personal gain and to control industry regulation. Prediction markets estimate the “CLARITY Act” has a 41% chance of passing before 2026, down nearly 25 percentage points from the previous level.
FAQ
Did Dallas Fed Chair Logan clearly signal support for a July rate hike?
Based on Logan’s July 16 remarks, she argued that interest rates should be “moderately higher,” but she did not clearly indicate that she would vote in favor of a rate hike at the FOMC meeting on July 28 to 29, nor did she explain how much she believes rates need to be raised. The market generally sees a July rate hike as less likely.
What is the September rate-hike probability shown by the CME FedWatch?
As of July 17, the CME “FedWatch” tool shows traders are pricing in about a 53% chance that the Fed will raise rates in September. The CME FedWatch derives these probabilities from market bets on the future policy-rate path as measured by federal funds futures prices; the probabilities change in real time as trading occurs.
What is the current legislative status of the “CLARITY Act”?
As of July 17, prediction markets estimate the “CLARITY Act” has a 41% chance of passing before 2026, down nearly 25 percentage points from the previous level. President Trump held a related discussion meeting on July 16, and the remaining unresolved ethical issues are still one of the negotiation focus areas; the specific legislative timetable will depend on Congress’s official procedures.
