Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuo'er published a forecast model predicting Bitcoin's cycle low between October and December 2026, with prices potentially reaching $42,000-$44,000. The forecast centers on Strategy's mNAV ratio declining to 0.72, approaching the historical low of 0.70 recorded on May 11, 2022. Jiang's model applies a four-year halving cycle framework to Bitcoin price movements, identifying October 31, 2026 as a specific date for a bearish cycle low near $44,016, representing a 30% decline from current levels.
Strategy mNAV Ratio Reaches 0.72 Near Historical Low
Jiang Zhuo'er shared observations on X noting Strategy's mNAV ratio dropped to 0.72, nearly matching the historical low of 0.70 recorded on May 11, 2022. The mNAV ratio compares the market value of Strategy shares with the net value of the company's Bitcoin holdings per share. A value above 1 signals a premium, while a value below 1 suggests pessimism and potential undervaluation. The current 0.72 level represents what Jiang characterizes as the lowest mNAV reading of this four-year cycle. He identified a divergence with the STRC indicator as another signal, suggesting an arbitrage opportunity for large investors involving long MSTR positions and simultaneous Bitcoin shorts.
Historical mNAV Bottom Preceded Bitcoin Price Low by Six Months
Jiang's analysis highlights that mNAV bottoms do not coincide with Bitcoin price bottoms. In the previous cycle, the mNAV ratio fell to 0.70 in May 2022 when Bitcoin traded near $31,017. Bitcoin reached its bear-market low on November 21, 2022 at $15,476, approximately six months later. By that date, the mNAV ratio had recovered to around 1.2. This six-month lag pattern forms the basis for Jiang's forecast that the current mNAV low at 0.72 precedes the actual Bitcoin price bottom.
Four-Year Cycle Model Identifies October 31, 2026 Forecast Date
Jiang used a four-year halving cycle model to calculate October 31, 2026 as a possible date for a bearish cycle low near $44,016. The model applies a bouncing ball analogy, where each rebound becomes smaller over time. Jiang argues Bitcoin volatility gradually decreases as market capitalization grows. The forecast window spans October through December 2026, with the price range of $42,000-$44,000 representing a 30% decline from current levels. The model depends on historical cycle behavior repeating.
FAQ
What is Strategy's mNAV ratio and why does it matter for Bitcoin price forecasts?
Strategy's mNAV ratio compares the market value of Strategy shares with the net value of the company's Bitcoin holdings per share. Jiang Zhuo'er uses this ratio as a market sentiment indicator, noting it currently stands at 0.72, near the historical low of 0.70 recorded on May 11, 2022. Values below 1 suggest deep pessimism and potential undervaluation.
When did Bitcoin reach its previous bear market low and what was the mNAV ratio at that time?
Bitcoin reached its bear-market low on November 21, 2022 at $15,476. At that time, Strategy's mNAV ratio had recovered to around 1.2, approximately six months after the mNAV ratio hit its low of 0.70 in May 2022 when Bitcoin traded near $31,017.
