Bitcoin is testing the $62,800-$63,600 demand zone after a failed rally above $64,700, according to technical analysis from market observers. The rejection at recent highs has trapped buyers and raised questions about whether the cryptocurrency can defend this support level or face further declines toward $60,000-$62,000. Analyst Gert van Lagen identifies a rising channel structure dating back to the 2018 bear market bottom, suggesting the current move could represent a bear trap before a potential expansion toward a long-term target of $400,000, though this projection remains unconfirmed and carries significant risk.
Bitcoin Tests $62,800-$63,600 Demand Zone After Failed Breakout
Bitcoin is bouncing from the $62,800-$63,600 demand zone following a rejection at recent highs. The latest rally above $64,700 failed to hold, trapping buyers who entered after the breakout. Technical analysts view this rejection as evidence that the move toward $65,500 represented a liquidity sweep rather than the beginning of a sustained advance.
Buyers are defending an imbalance and demand area between $62,800 and $63,600. A strong rebound and reclaim of $64,700 would improve the short-term structure and could bring $66,000-$67,000 back into focus. However, liquidity has continued to build below $62,000, creating conditions for further downside if the demand zone fails.
A decisive break below $62,800 would expose the $60,000-$62,000 region and confirm that sellers remain in control. The bounce keeps both outcomes open, but the failed breakout above recent highs gives the setup a bearish lean according to chart analysis.
Gert van Lagen Identifies Rising Channel From 2018 With $400,000 Projection
Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of a rising channel that has guided its long-term structure since the 2018 bear market bottom, according to analyst Gert van Lagen. Van Lagen views the latest move as a possible third bear trap before a final major expansion.
The analysis compares the current setup with similar breakdowns in 2019 and 2022. In both cases, Bitcoin briefly moved below or tested the channel floor before recovering and beginning a larger advance. The Elliott Wave count suggests Bitcoin remains in the fourth-wave correction of a broader five-wave structure.
Holding the lower trendline would support the case for a final fifth wave, with the projected target rising toward $400,000 as the channel expands over time. Van Lagen places the wider invalidation level near $31,000. As long as Bitcoin remains above that area, the long-term bullish count stays technically possible.
Key Price Levels: $64,700 Recovery Versus $62,000 Breakdown
Bitcoin must hold the $62,800-$63,600 demand zone and recover $64,700 to shift momentum back toward buyers. A successful reclaim of $64,700 would bring the $66,000-$67,000 range back into focus as the next resistance area.
A sustained breakdown below $62,800 would expose the $60,000-$62,000 region and weaken the bear-trap interpretation on the monthly chart. The $400,000 target remains a high-risk cycle projection rather than a confirmed destination, requiring Bitcoin to recover from the trendline and form stronger monthly highs before gaining confirmation.
The technical structure keeps both bullish and bearish outcomes open, with the immediate reaction at the $62,800-$63,600 zone determining the next major directional move.
FAQ
What price level is Bitcoin currently testing?
Bitcoin is testing the $62,800-$63,600 demand zone after rejecting recent highs above $64,700. This zone represents a key support area where buyers are attempting to defend against further declines toward $60,000-$62,000.
What is Gert van Lagen's long-term Bitcoin price projection?
Gert van Lagen identifies a rising channel structure from the 2018 bear market bottom with a projected target of $400,000 as the channel expands over time. This projection remains unconfirmed and carries significant risk, with an invalidation level near $31,000.
What happens if Bitcoin breaks below $62,800?
A decisive break below $62,800 would expose the $60,000-$62,000 region and confirm that sellers remain in control. This would weaken the bear-trap interpretation and suggest the correction has more room to develop before any potential recovery.
