Bitcoin's CVDD Hits $45,410 Late April, Signals Bear Market Late Stage

According to analyst Murphy, Bitcoin’s long-term valuation metric CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) reached $45,410 in late April, up only $506 since February 10. This modest increase reflects major whale holders significantly reducing or halting on-chain transfers. Murphy noted that the crossover between the average transfer cost of Bitcoin held for 1-2 years and that of Bitcoin held for 1-3 months signals Bitcoin has officially entered the late stage of the bear market. CVDD, a metric introduced by on-chain analyst Willy Woo, has never failed in Bitcoin’s history, with price consistently trading above it. Even in a worst-case scenario with further decline, BTC is unlikely to fall below approximately $45,500, suggesting a theoretical maximum downside of around 30%.