Bond Strategists Warn Long-Term Yields Will Remain Elevated Even If Iran Conflict Ends

According to bond strategists from ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays, long-term borrowing costs will likely remain near multi-year highs even if the Iran conflict concludes, Jin10 reported on May 24.

The strategists highlighted that rising real yields—yields adjusted for inflation—reflect broader concerns beyond war-driven price pressures. Key drivers include expanding public debt burdens, sustained artificial intelligence investment flows, and growing expectations that central banks will maintain or raise rates rather than cut them. Even if oil price increases reverse course, the analysts note, recent increases in long-term yields are unlikely to fully reverse.