BTC rose 0.53% in 15 minutes: Federal Reserve Chair's speech eases tightening expectations, ETF inflows marginally improve.

During the period from 01:00 to 01:15 UTC on July 3, 2026, BTC price rose in the short term, with a yield of +0.53%. The price range was 61,286.2 to 61,722.7 USDT, with a volatility of 0.71%. This period falls within the active trading hours of the Asian morning session, as the market entered a consolidation and recovery phase after experiencing significant fluctuations in the previous trading day.

The main driver of this unusual movement was a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh on July 2, in which he stated that 'inflation risks have declined,' directly easing market concerns about ongoing monetary tightening. This statement came after the close of North American trading hours, directly impacting the pricing of risk assets in the Asian morning session on July 3. The U.S. Dollar Index also fell simultaneously, providing support for risk assets such as BTC.

Secondly, capital flows showed marginal improvement. On July 2, ETFs recorded a net inflow of $91.8 million, reversing the large net outflow of $296.0 million on the previous day (July 1), forming a narrowing outflow trend. Although the total net outflow over the past 7 days still stands at $2.26 billion, the short-term capital flow pressure has eased somewhat. At the same time, the negative funding rate environment (7-day average -1.8%, the lowest since 2023) accumulated a large number of short speculative positions. After the speech, short covering further amplified the gains. On-chain data shows that for the first time in 6 weeks, there were 10,095 large single-day transactions, the highest since April 22, indicating a significant increase in whale activity.

Attention should be paid to short-term volatility risks. The current Fear and Greed Index remains in the 'Extreme Fear' zone at 18. Institutionally, net outflows continue for the 6th consecutive week, with 26 out of 30 days being negative outflow days, indicating the reduction trend has not fundamentally reversed. The All Exchanges Whale Ratio has climbed to a 10-month high, suggesting that whales are intensively using exchange operations, posing potential selling pressure. Moving forward, focus should be on whether ETF capital flows continue to improve, as well as market reactions to macro policy events such as the signing of the CLARITY Act in July and the tariff deadline.