Citigroup Predicts Aluminum to Hit $4,000 Per Ton in H2 2026 Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions

Citigroup predicts aluminum prices will reach $4,000 per ton in the second half of 2026, with the bank citing Middle East supply disruptions as one of the most significant supply shocks in industry history. The forecast is supported by near-zero idle production capacity, historically low inventory levels prior to the disruption, and elevated costs of substitute materials such as copper and plastic. Aluminum futures on the LME are expected to average $4,000 per ton in Q3 and Q4.