CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April Rally Was 'Speculative,' Spot Demand Weak

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has characterized Bitcoin’s April price surge as a “speculative rally” driven primarily by perpetual futures demand rather than fundamental buying support, warning of increased correction risk. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, Bitcoin rose approximately 20% in April, climbing from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000, but this gain was driven mainly by growth in perpetual futures demand while spot demand remained negative throughout the period.

Perpetual Futures Driving Rally, Spot Demand Contracting

“Perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of bitcoin’s April price rally, while spot apparent demand contracted throughout, a configuration historically associated with unsustained price gains during bear markets,” wrote Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, in a report.

This divergence—rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand—represents one of the clearest onchain signals that the rally is speculative rather than structural, according to Moreno. The pattern suggests the price rise is driven by leverage rather than fresh bitcoin accumulation. “Historically, such configurations lack the structural foundation required to sustain price gains and typically resolve via correction once futures positioning unwinds,” Moreno stated.

CryptoQuant’s analysis of Bitcoin price movement and demand dynamics in April

Comparison to 2022 Bear Market Pattern

CryptoQuant noted that the current demand pattern driven by perpetual futures mirrors what was observed at the start of the 2022 bear market. While the firm stated this does not guarantee an identical outcome this time, the current structure carries “meaningful downside risk.”

The analysis suggests the rally is “not sustainable,” as sustained price rallies during bull markets typically coincide with demand growth. “Without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive, rallies back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the onchain support needed for a sustained breakout,” CryptoQuant said.

Bull Score Index Signals Deteriorating Conditions

The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, returning to bearish territory below the neutral threshold. This decline confirms that onchain fundamentals deteriorated following the recent speculative futures-driven price rally, according to the firm.

“The Bull Score of returning back to 40 indicates conditions are ‘getting bearish’ and places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness,” CryptoQuant concluded. The Bull Score Index aggregates multiple onchain and market indicators on a 0–100 scale, where scores above 50 indicate bullish conditions and below 50 indicate bearish conditions.

CryptoQuant Bull Score Index movement in April

Current Price and Market Position

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $78,500, nearly flat over the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s bitcoin price data.