ETH drops 0.59% in 15 minutes: Selling pressure at key technical levels and volatility compression trigger short-term sell-off

From 01:00 to 01:15 (UTC) on July 4, 2026, ETH fell 0.59% in 15 minutes, with a price range of 1746.85 - 1758.71 USDT and an amplitude of 0.67%. The price has approached the psychological level of $1,500, with increased market volatility and a significant rise in trading activity.

The main driver of this unusual movement was the concentrated release of technical selling pressure. When the price approached the key psychological support level of $1,500, it triggered profit-taking by some short-term traders, while risk-averse investors initiated panic selling, causing a rapid short-term decline. In addition, the 50-day moving average at $2,044 and the 200-day moving average at $2,281 are both far above the current price, forming a layered resistance structure; the Bollinger Band width is in a historically low compression state, and the directional choice after volatility compression was a downward breakout.

At the same time, multiple secondary factors resonated to amplify the volatility. The lag effect of end-of-quarter fund rebalancing is still unfolding, market sentiment is in a state of extreme fear (the Fear and Greed Index recorded only 8), and the trading volume of both spot and futures has declined simultaneously (futures trading volume shrank 9.19% in a single day). The contraction in liquidity means that buy and sell orders of the same size have a greater impact on price. From a broader perspective, ETH has fallen for three consecutive quarters in 2026 (Q4 2025 down 28.28%, Q1 2026 down 29.26%, Q2 2026 down 24.77%), setting a historical record for three consecutive quarterly declines. This trend of weakness provides a systematic backdrop for short-term volatility.

Currently, the key focus is on the battle for the $1,500 level. If it is lost, the theoretical downside target points to the $1,200 area; the daily RSI is around 40, not yet oversold, so the downside space has not fully opened. At the same time, it is necessary to continuously monitor whether active addresses show a sustained recovery and whether ETF fund flows turn positive.