According to Glassnode on-chain data, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) currently have a relative unrealized loss of 15.5%. Based on a Bitcoin price of $69,500, this means that for each $1 of book loss, the amount is about $0.15 per $1 held. Glassnode analysis shows that the current stress level is far below the extreme thresholds seen at the bottom of past bear markets—during the previous cycle’s low point, relative unrealized losses had exceeded a $0.50 loss for every $1 held.
Glassnode Relative Unrealized Loss Metric: What the Confirmed Data Means
(Source: Glassnode)
Glassnode’s relative unrealized loss metric measures the financial stress level of long-term Bitcoin holders before selling their assets. A reading of 15.5% indicates there is clear book pressure at present, but under Glassnode’s historical data framework, this level falls into the “moderate stress” category rather than the extreme threshold that would trigger large-scale selling.
Glassnode’s research conclusion is that long-term holders have not experienced the severe loss magnitude seen at the bottom of the previous cycle, and that in history, large-scale selling has typically required a much larger loss drawdown as a prerequisite.
Historical Bottom Comparison: The Gap Between 15.5% and a Threshold of Over 50%
At the extreme lows of early Bitcoin cycles, Glassnode data shows that relative unrealized losses exceeded a $0.50 loss for every $1 held. These periods reflect a deeper market weakness and investor behavior characterized by exiting into losses at large scale. Even with the current 15.5% reading, there is still a significant gap between it and the historical bottom threshold. Based on this, Glassnode points out that the current market has not reached the extreme stress level observed at a major cycle bottom.
FAQ
How is Glassnode’s relative unrealized loss metric calculated?
Glassnode’s relative unrealized loss metric is calculated as the total unrealized losses of all long-term holders currently in a book-loss state, relative to the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value. A reading of 15.5% means that, at the current market price, the total unrealized book loss amount of long-term holders’ aggregate holdings is equivalent to 15.5% of the entire market value.
Does a 15.5% unrealized loss mean Bitcoin faces a risk of large-scale sell-offs?
According to Glassnode’s historical analysis framework, large-scale sell-offs (excess settlement) typically occur at loss levels far beyond 15.5%. At the previous cycle bottom, relative unrealized losses exceeded a $0.50 loss for every $1 held, while the current level is $0.15. Glassnode’s conclusion is that the current market has not entered the loss threshold range that triggers historical bottom behavior.
Is the $69,500 price reference point the current Bitcoin spot price?
The Bitcoin calculation benchmark cited in the source is $69,500, which is used to derive the result of roughly $0.15 loss per $1 held. The source does not explain whether this is a closing price on a specific date or an analysis reference date. Glassnode’s relative unrealized loss metric updates in real time as Bitcoin’s market price changes.
