Guojin Securities: Gold Rally Seen as Temporary Rebound, Not Trend Reversal; Year-End Target 4,300-4,500/oz

According to Guojin Securities, gold spot prices rebounded 2.6% since July 20, but the brokerage views the rally as a temporary rebound driven by fund rotation away from AI stocks rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The SPDR Gold ETF expanded to 1,008 tonnes on July 22 from 999 tonnes on July 17, while Comex gold futures speculative positions also recovered. Gold has yet to break above the downtrend channel established since late April.

The brokerage expects gold to trade sideways with recovery potential in the second half of 2026, citing configuration value on weakness but needing event catalysts for stronger gains. Year-end target range stands at 4,300-4,500 per ounce, pending developments in AI bubble sentiment, Fed rate-cut expectations, and dollar credibility concerns.