JPMorgan analysts reported that Bitcoin has traded below its estimated production cost of $78,000 for five consecutive months, leaving about 20% of miners unprofitable. The bank said publicly listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 to cover operating expenses, citing data from TheEnergymag and a Coinshares first-quarter mining report. Bitcoin is trading near $63,000. The gap between market price and production cost has created balance sheet pressure across the mining sector, with Q1 sales exceeding the total amount those companies sold during all of 2025.
Public Miners Sold 32,000+ BTC in Q1 2026
JPMorgan said the 32,000+ BTC sold by publicly listed mining companies in the first quarter represented a sharp increase from historical levels. The bank cited TheEnergymag data showing this figure exceeded total sales by those companies during all of 2025. JPMorgan currently places Bitcoin's production cost at about $78,000 per coin. The bank said about 20% of miners are operating unprofitably, according to Coinshares' first-quarter mining report.
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Mining Difficulty Sensitivity to Price Increased
JPMorgan said Bitcoin's hashrate and mining difficulty have become more sensitive to price movements. Over the past six months, the beta of mining difficulty to bitcoin prices rose to 0.62. The analysts said this suggests more miners are operating close to breakeven. Bitcoin mining difficulty fell 10% in the second week of June. JPMorgan noted this was the second drop of that size, following a similar decline in January. When bitcoin trades below production cost, higher-cost miners tend to power down equipment, which reduces hashrate and leads the network to adjust difficulty lower.
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JPMorgan Expects Continued Difficulty Volatility
JPMorgan said mining difficulty and hashrate will remain volatile as long as bitcoin stays materially below its production cost. The bank said investors should expect larger and more frequent mining difficulty adjustments while miners continue responding to price pressure. JPMorgan stated the pressure is falling hardest on operators without cheap power, efficient machines, or enough capital to ride out the downturn.
FAQ
What production cost does JPMorgan estimate for Bitcoin?
JPMorgan currently places Bitcoin's production cost at about $78,000 per coin.
How much Bitcoin did public miners sell in Q1 2026?
Publicly listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 to cover operating expenses, according to JPMorgan citing TheEnergymag data. This exceeded the total amount those companies sold during all of 2025.
What percentage of Bitcoin miners are unprofitable according to JPMorgan?
JPMorgan said about 20% of miners are operating unprofitably, citing Coinshares' first-quarter mining report, as Bitcoin trades near $63,000 while production cost is estimated at $78,000.
