Nomura Raises AI Chip Forecasts, Extends Cycle Peak to 2028 on Strong Server Demand

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According to Nomura Securities, the peak of the current AI infrastructure cycle has been extended to 2028, driven by stronger-than-expected data center buildout and server demand. Global data center projects increased from 240 to 280, with gigawatt-scale facilities rising from 40 to 50. The bank raised server market growth forecasts significantly: global server shipment growth to 74% for 2026 and 65% for 2027, up from 43%, while AI server growth revised to 78% and 76% respectively, up from 58%. Nomura cited semiconductor production as a bottleneck, estimating Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's actual output at 1,800 thousand pieces per quarter against a 2,000 thousand-piece target for wafer-on-substrate.
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