Oil Prices Continue to Fall as Geopolitical Risk Premium Fades; Iran's Exports Rise, Analysts Say

According to analysts cited by Jin10 on June 24, oil prices have extended their downward trend as geopolitical risk premiums stemming from U.S.-Iran tensions fade. Since late May, navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have improved significantly, and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations in mid-June have boosted market expectations for normalized transit, causing crude to give back most gains since the conflict escalated.

Iran's sea-based oil exports have been increasing marginally since late May, and analysts project exports from the Persian Gulf region could recover to over 10 million barrels per day by end-July, with full production reaching 15 million barrels daily by October. As oil prices fall, domestic refinery margins are expected to improve, potentially boosting crude demand in coming months.