OPEC+ to increase output by 18.8 thousand barrels per day: the first meeting without the UAE, with Saudi Arabia taking the lead in restraining the increase

OPEC+ held its first meeting on May 3 without the UAE in attendance and decided to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in June. CNBC reported that the UAE officially exited OPEC on May 1, ending its nearly 60-year role within the OPEC framework. The meeting was attended by seven countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The increase in production was relatively moderate, and there was no direct public response to the UAE’s exit.

UAE exits OPEC: the third-largest oil producer leaves, reshaping the influence structure

In February 2026, the UAE is still OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Its decision to leave OPEC is among the most significant member changes in the organization’s 60-year history, and has been interpreted externally as “the UAE’s long-term dissatisfaction with its production quota, choosing to leave in exchange for production capacity freedom.” After exiting, the UAE can still independently decide output, without being constrained by OPEC quotas.

The 188,000 barrels per day production increase at this meeting is the figure shared by the seven countries excluding the UAE. If the UAE were still in the organization, the increase could have been larger; its exit means OPEC’s influence in “responding to market supply pressure by increasing production” has been diluted.

Saudi-led restrained increases: leaving a buffer for the market after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Since conflict between the US and Iran began on February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively disrupted, and the global oil market has entered a supply-tight period of nearly half a year. OPEC+ increased production in April for the second consecutive time with modest gains, and this was the third modest step up, but even cumulatively it remains far from enough to fill the supply gap trapped by Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia’s stance is to “retain capacity, without releasing it all at once,” avoiding the market’s misinterpretation that OPEC has exhausted all available idle capacity. This contrasts with the US during the same period becoming the “last oil source” at a rate of more than 4 million barrels per day—OPEC wants to preserve prices, the US wants to preserve market share, and the UAE wants to preserve production freedom.

Next watch: the UAE’s independent production increase, the OPEC+ June meeting, and US shale capacity

The key focus for the next phase is whether the UAE begins independently boosting output in June; if it increases substantially, it could further push down international oil prices and offset Saudi Arabia’s restrained strategy. OPEC+’s next meeting is expected in June, but whether it will discuss further production increases or make an official response to the UAE’s exit has not yet been announced.

Another point to watch is the cap on US shale oil production—if Hormuz is hindered for the long term, and OPEC+ continues to restrain production, the market will be highly dependent on the US to fill the gap, making the drilling pace and pipeline capacity of the shale industry a critical variable.

This article OPEC+ increases production by 188,000 barrels per day: the first meeting without the UAE, Saudi Arabia leads restrained increases first appeared on News ABMedia.