Polysilicon Futures Hit Limit Up Amid China's Anti-Dumping Campaign

Gate News message, April 20 — Polysilicon futures on China’s commodity markets surged to the daily limit on April 20, with the main contract climbing more than 1% by mid-morning. The Wind Photovoltaic Index (884045) rose 1.31% the same day, reflecting broad strength across the solar sector.

The rally was fueled by policy signals from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other departments, which convened a solar industry conference on April 17 to address what officials termed “involution-style” competition. The meeting emphasized the need to regulate competitive practices in the photovoltaic sector, with specific focus on capacity controls, quality standards, pricing enforcement, and merger oversight. Notably, the conference included major state-owned power generation companies such as China Huaneng Group, China Datang Group, and China Huadian Group—entities that typically serve as downstream buyers in solar project auctions.

However, analysts cautioned that the current rally is primarily driven by policy expectations rather than fundamental improvements. Industry data from the China Silicon Industry Association showed polysilicon inventory at 4.99 million tons as of end-March, with supply-demand imbalances persisting. Market participants noted that while recent price stabilization has prompted some downstream restocking, underlying supply remains elevated and terminal demand recovery has been sluggish. The average cash production cost for polysilicon stands near 35,000 yuan per ton, providing a floor for prices, but elevated inventory levels continue to cap upside potential.

Market analysts at institutions including SMM and Guotai Junan Futures advised caution, noting that structural supply-demand contradictions have yet to be resolved. They recommended monitoring the rollout of specific policy measures and demand trends in the traditional peak season of May and June before committing to sustained bullish positions.