Russian intelligence likely coordinated a large-scale drone surveillance campaign targeting military and nuclear facilities across Europe during an 18-month period beginning in late 2024, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The campaign involved 144 drone-related incidents in more than a dozen NATO countries and Ireland, with some drones believed to have been launched from vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet, including the tanker Seasons 1 and cargo ship Hav Dolphin. Drone activity peaked during September and November of 2025 before declining after European naval forces began seizing suspected shadow fleet vessels in 2026. The operation targeted strategic sites including RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk and France's Île Longue naval base, exposing significant weaknesses in European air defenses as authorities repeatedly failed to intercept or capture the unmanned aircraft.
IISS Report Documents 144 Drone Incidents Across NATO Countries
The International Institute for Strategic Studies report concluded that Russian intelligence orchestrated 144 drone-related incidents in more than a dozen NATO countries and Ireland beginning in late 2024. Charlie Edwards, a senior fellow at the IISS and one of the report's authors, said the evidence strongly indicates that the Kremlin conducted a coordinated unmanned aerial vehicle campaign in Europe. Edwards described the operation as a series of tactical successes for Russia, shedding light on what he called a strategic failure by allied defenses that are primarily designed to counter conventional military threats rather than small, inexpensive drones flying at low altitude. Researchers said the campaign was carried out with substantial impunity.
RAF Lakenheath and Île Longue Among Targeted Strategic Sites
Among the sites believed to have been targeted were RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, which was being prepared to host US nuclear weapons, and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. France's nuclear submarine base at Île Longue in Brittany was also identified as one of the locations where suspicious drone activity was recorded. The analysis found that Germany recorded the highest number of incidents. Despite the frequency of the incursions, Western militaries reportedly failed to shoot down or seize any of the drones involved.
Seasons 1 and Hav Dolphin Identified as Suspected Launch Vessels
The report suggests that some of the drones may have been launched from vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet. Investigators identified the tanker Seasons 1, which was operating in the North Sea near Essex, and the cargo ship Hav Dolphin, which was docked in Hull during several of the reported incidents, as possible launch platforms. The Hav Dolphin was later also suspected of involvement in drone sightings over a submarine base in northern Germany.
Campaign Objectives Extended Beyond Intelligence Gathering
Researchers believe the objectives of the campaign extended beyond simple intelligence gathering. Potential motivations include monitoring nuclear facilities, conducting military reconnaissance, mapping logistics and supply chains, and carrying out psychological operations that are designed to create uncertainty. Although many European governments stopped short of publicly accusing Russia of orchestrating the incidents, Edwards said officials privately acknowledged the seriousness of the findings. According to him, governments consulted during the research welcomed the publication of the report despite their reluctance to make formal public accusations.
Incident Peak Occurred September-November 2025
Drone sightings peaked during September and November of 2025. The number of reported incidents declined since European naval forces began seizing vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet during 2026.
FAQ
What sites did the Russian drone surveillance campaign target in Europe?
According to the IISS report, targeted sites included RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, which was being prepared to host US nuclear weapons, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, and France's nuclear submarine base at Île Longue in Brittany. Germany recorded the highest number of incidents among affected countries.
Which vessels were identified as suspected launch platforms for the drones?
Investigators identified the tanker Seasons 1, which was operating in the North Sea near Essex, and the cargo ship Hav Dolphin, which was docked in Hull during several reported incidents, as possible launch platforms. The Hav Dolphin was later also suspected of involvement in drone sightings over a submarine base in northern Germany.
When did drone incident activity peak and decline?
Drone sightings peaked during September and November of 2025. The number of reported incidents declined since European naval forces began seizing vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet during 2026.
