S&P 500 Surges 16% in Two Months, Deutsche Bank Warns of Pre-1987 Crash Pattern

According to Deutsche Bank's latest research, the S&P 500 index surged 16% between April and May 2026, marking an exceptionally rare two-month rally since World War II. Deutsche Bank noted that such rapid gains have occurred only four times in the past 80 years—three followed economic recessions, but one notably preceded the "Black Monday" crash of 1987, when no recession preceded the surge.

Macrostrategy analyst Henry Allen stated that the current rally differs significantly from post-crisis recoveries like 2020 (pandemic recovery) and 2009 (financial crisis recovery). "Since World War II, the only instance of such rapid gains without recession context was 1987 before the crash," Allen said. On October 19, 1987, the S&P 500 plunged over 20% in a single day, marking one of Wall Street's worst single-day collapses.