SpaceX Stock Falls 28% from Peak; Veteran Investor George Noble Warns of Massive Insider Unlock Selling Pressure

According to veteran investor George Noble, SpaceX stock faces significant selling pressure in the coming months as insider lockup periods expire, following a 28% decline from its post-IPO peak above $200 per share. Noble, who helped establish Fidelity's Overseas Fund, reiterated his bearish stance on X last Saturday (July 11), warning that the unlocking of employee and early investor holdings will be the primary market driver, not company fundamentals.

Noble cited valuation concerns, noting SpaceX's IPO pricing at $135 per share carried a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 90x, climbing to roughly 140x in early trading. With only under 5% of shares in public float at IPO and rapid inclusion in Nasdaq-100 and Russell indices, passive funds were forced to buy billions in shares amid artificially tight supply. Internal stock will unlock in stages following Q2 earnings through year-end, with a final tranche scheduled for June 2027. Noble estimates a fair value of $30 per share, arguing current valuations are unsustainable.