Traders Raise Fed Rate Hike Expectations to 50% Probability by October

According to Odaily Daily and Jin10, traders raised expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes today amid stalled Iran-U.S. peace talks and surging energy costs. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 6 basis points to near 4.5%, while the 2-year yield climbed 6 basis points to 4.07%. Crude oil prices jumped over 7%. Swap markets show traders have fully priced in one rate hike by March 2027, with a 50% probability of increases beginning as early as October.
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