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U.S. Margin Debt Surges Over 40% in 12 Months, Hits Levels Last Seen Before Major Market Downturns

GateNews
Indices
SPX500-0.82%
According to investment research firm Leuthold Group, U.S. margin debt surged over 40% in the past 12 months, reaching levels typically seen before major market corrections, including the 2000 dot-com bubble, 2007 financial crisis, and 2021 bull market peak. The growth rate is notably outpacing equity gains: margin debt increased approximately 54% year-over-year while the S&P 500 delivered a total return of 22% over the same period, widening the "excess margin growth" spread to 26% above historical warning thresholds. As of May 2026, margin debt reached $1.4 trillion, according to FINRA data. Leuthold's Chief Investment Officer Scott Opsal warned that such rapid borrowing typically precedes market weakness, stating the current setup is "a very bearish looking signal."
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