U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Rise 172k in May, Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 63% for December

According to Jin10, on June 5, the U.S. released May employment data showing non-farm payrolls increased by 172,000, exceeding market expectations of 85,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% for a second consecutive month. Following the release, market pricing shifted sharply: U.S. rate futures now show a 63% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, up from 48%.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that OPEC crude oil production fell to multi-decade lows in May at 16.33 million barrels per day, down 1.22 million barrels with Iran accounting for half the decline. U.S. sanctions on Iran and continued regional tensions in the Persian Gulf continued to suppress output.