VanEck's head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel appeared on Scott Melker's The Wolf of All Streets podcast on July 5 and stated he expects Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high by the first quarter of 2028. Sigel told Melker that despite near-term regulatory uncertainty ahead of November 2026 midterm elections, he remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals, citing growing sovereign adoption with about 22 countries now mining or holding the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025, but is currently trading 50% lower at $61,693 following U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff warning in October and the country's conflict with Iran. VanEck is a global investment management firm headquartered in New York City which held $199.1 billion in assets under management as of March 31, 2026.
VanEck's Matthew Sigel Advises Gradual Bitcoin Positioning by October 2026
Sigel told Melker he still expects Bitcoin to be "materially higher" in a year but cautioned that the market may need fresh catalysts before enthusiasm returns. Rather than urging investors to buy aggressively now, the research head said he's advising clients to gradually build their Bitcoin positions over the coming months. "What I've been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October," Sigel said, referring to October 2026. His cautious approach reflects several unresolved risks, including uncertainty around crypto regulation in the U.S. ahead of upcoming midterm elections in November 2026. Sigel said institutional investors remain hesitant to expand beyond Bitcoin until regulators provide clearer rules for digital assets. "The front pages of the newspapers have not really grappled with what a blue sweep would mean for the pro-growth agenda, not to mention the crypto agenda," he said.
Sigel Predicts Bitcoin Will Surpass All-Time High by Q1 2028
Despite near-term uncertainties, Sigel remains bullish about Bitcoin's long-term outlook. He pointed to growing sovereign adoption, noting that about 22 countries now either mine or hold Bitcoin, with that number continuing to rise each year. Sigel said the market needs a fundamentally positive catalyst to generate renewed excitement about the cryptocurrency, which could come from progress on the CLARITY Act or the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the U.S. Under such trends, Sigel expects Bitcoin to surpass its previous all-time high by the first quarter of 2028. "If Bitcoin's not above its all-time high by Q1 2028, that forces a thesis rethink," he said. Sigel's comments suggest VanEck continues to see Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals intact, even as it expects investors to navigate regulatory uncertainty and political risks before the next major leg higher. Bitcoin was trading at $61,693 at the time of writing, as per Decibel.
FAQ
What did VanEck's Matthew Sigel predict for Bitcoin by Q1 2028?
Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital assets research, stated on Scott Melker's podcast on July 5 that he expects Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high of $126,080 by the first quarter of 2028. Sigel said if Bitcoin does not exceed that level by Q1 2028, it would force a rethink of his investment thesis.
Why is VanEck advising clients to build Bitcoin positions by October 2026?
Sigel told Melker that clients should have their full Bitcoin position by October 2026 because the market faces near-term regulatory uncertainty ahead of November 2026 midterm elections in the U.S. He said institutional investors remain hesitant to expand beyond Bitcoin until regulators provide clearer rules for digital assets, and the market may need fresh catalysts such as progress on the CLARITY Act or the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve before enthusiasm returns.
