VanEck Semiconductor ETF Hits 31x Forward P/E as Analysts Caution on Further Gains

SMH5.86%
According to Morgan Stanley strategists and FactSet data, VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH-US) has approached historical highs with a forward P/E ratio rising above 31x in recent weeks. The fund's holdings, including Nvidia (NVDA-US), AMD (AMD-US), Broadcom (AVGO-US), and TSMC (2330-TW), have seen 2026 profit estimates revised upward 46%, with revenue forecasts increased 13% since late November 2025. However, analysts now recommend holding existing positions without adding new capital, as analyst upgrades for S&P 500 semiconductor companies have reached nearly 80%—an extreme level since 2003—suggesting profit estimate revisions may soon reverse.
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