Three Wall Street firms converged Monday on shared investment arguments across four publicly traded crypto companies, maintaining buy-equivalent ratings even as analysts adjusted price targets downward to reflect compressed valuation multiples across the payments and crypto sectors. Benchmark, TD Cowen, and Mizuho each highlighted how the market is applying trading-business multiples to platforms that have already shifted toward AI infrastructure, capital markets utilities, and structured financial operations. The analysts covered Bitdeer, DeFi Technologies, Strive, and Gemini Space Station.
## Benchmark's Infrastructure Case on Bitdeer
Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reiterated his Buy rating on Bitdeer (BTDR) with a $27 price target. Palmer centered his case on Bitdeer's approximately 3.0 gigawatt global power portfolio spanning the U.S., Norway, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Canada, and Malaysia, arguing the infrastructure may prove materially more valuable than current market pricing as hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies face mounting power constraints.
Palmer identified Bitdeer's Tydal site in Norway as a near-term test of this thesis. The site is expected to deliver roughly 180 megawatts of gross installed capacity designed for AI colocation workloads aligned with Nvidia reference architectures. Management stated on its Q1 earnings call that negotiations with a prospective investment-grade tenant are in advanced stages, with pricing described as favorable relative to comparable announced transactions. Palmer called a signed lease the most likely catalyst for a rerating of BTDR shares.
Bitdeer's AI cloud annual recurring revenue expanded from roughly $10 million at the end of January to roughly $69 million by the end of April. GPU deployment climbed past 4,100 units with utilization above 90%, and customers are increasingly committing to three- to five-year contracts.
Q1 results showed mixed performance. Revenue of $188.9 million more than doubled year over year from $70.1 million, but a gross loss of $39 million and a net loss of $159.5 million reflected accelerated deployment of Bitdeer's SEALMINER fleet alongside higher electricity costs and depreciation tied to rapid infrastructure expansion. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $14.4 million, compared with a loss of $45.6 million a year earlier.
Palmer attributed margin pressure to transitory factors—weaker bitcoin pricing during the quarter, unusually high non-cash depreciation from rapid miner deployment, and seasonal power cost dynamics at its Norway and Bhutan facilities.
## DeFi Technologies' Capital Markets Utility Pivot
Benchmark analysts also highlighted DeFi Technologies (DEFT), cutting their price target to $2 from $3 while reiterating their Buy rating. The note used a 12x multiple on 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $0.15.
DEFT posted Q1 revenue of $11.2 million and net income of $4.9 million. Average AUM at its Valor ETP subsidiary fell 32% year over year to $533.6 million, which management characterized as the trough of the current crypto bear market.
CEO Johan Wattenstrom told investors the company would eventually look less like an asset manager and more like "a vertically integrated capital markets utility for digital assets," with a proprietary in-house custody stack targeting a productized release in late Q3. Wattenstrom argued that every real-world asset tokenization product, stablecoin issuance, and securitized digital instrument would require a custodian, making the in-house solution both a cost reduction and a platform anchor for adjacent products.
Stillman Digital, DEFT's institutional OTC trading arm, grew trading commissions 38% year over year to $2.9 million in the quarter and is tracking toward the upper end of its 15% to 20% full-year growth target. Management guided to roughly $12 million in 2026 revenue versus $10 million in 2025.
A Nasdaq minimum bid compliance issue added an unusual dimension. DEFT is currently testing the dollar threshold, and Wattenstrom told investors the company had roughly a year of runway across two 180-day compliance windows. Management indicated that any reverse split, if pursued, would be followed by significant share buybacks.
DEFT ended Q1 with approximately $156 million in combined cash, stablecoins, crypto treasury holdings, and venture portfolio value against a market capitalization of roughly $275 million.
## Strive's Daily Dividend Structure
TD Cowen raised its price target on Strive (ASST) to $30 from the previous $26, with analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete citing a capital formation innovation they argued would accelerate bitcoin accumulation per fully diluted share.
The catalyst was Strive's announced plan to pay daily dividends on its SATA perpetual preferred shares, described as the first such structure adopted by a public company. Under the proposed design, dividends will continue to be declared monthly but distributed in equal daily installments throughout the period, intended to smooth pronounced trading volume spikes around monthly record dates and reduce ex-dividend price dislocations. TD Cowen expects the structure to widen the investor base for SATA, improve its collateral value, and eventually make it eligible for inclusion in low-volatility or income-oriented mandates.
Analysts now forecast SATA comprising roughly 50% of Strive's total capital raised over its projection period, up from approximately 25% previously. The firm raised its 2026 BTC Yield estimate to 26.1% from 21.3%, implying a projected $263 million in bitcoin dollar gains for the year. Strive held 13,628 BTC as of the end of Q1.
## Mizuho's Gemini Transformation Thesis
Mizuho Securities USA Managing Director Dan Dolev cut his price target on Gemini Space Station (GEMI) to $10 from $12 while maintaining his Outperform rating. The reduction reflected more current payment and crypto valuation multiples, not a deteriorating business view.
Dolev argued the market was "under-appreciating the pace" of Gemini's transformation from a single-line crypto brokerage into a diversified markets platform. A key signal he pointed to was that Gemini's transaction revenue held essentially flat in Q1 despite a greater than 50% decline in trading volumes. Dolev wrote that this mismatch "is more important than the growth itself," arguing it evidences take-rate expansion and a composition shift away from spot trading toward structurally less volatile revenue streams.
Credit card economics accounted for roughly 30% of net revenue in the quarter, up approximately 300% year over year. Prediction markets exceeded 100 million contracts traded, with monthly volume up 78%.
Dolev argued Gemini is assembling a regulated "edge stack," including its DCO license, which positions the company in the clearing layer rather than just execution. Early agentic trading infrastructure represents a first step toward API-native, AI-driven order flow that could reshape how liquidity reaches the platform. Dolev wrote that the trajectory mirrors how traditional finance incumbents evolved from pure exchanges into data, clearing, and workflow businesses, only faster due to the crypto undertone.
Mizuho projects Gemini will reach positive adjusted EBITDA in 2028, with 2026 revenue of $239 million rising to $330 million in 2027. Dolev's $10 price target reflects roughly 3x his 2027 EV/revenue estimate against a peer group average of 6x, a discount that quantifies the gap analysts argued the market has yet to close.
