XRP Trader Returns Hit 6-Year Low as MVRV Ratio Matches December 2020 Levels

XRP's average trader returns have fallen to their weakest level in six years, with the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio dropping to levels last seen in December 2020, according to on-chain data from Santiment Intelligence. The average XRP trader active over the past month is now down approximately 47%, reflecting widespread recent capitulation. XRP is currently trading at $1.34, per CoinCodex data. Historically, deeply negative MVRV readings have clustered near major market bottoms, as selling pressure exhausts when short-term holders become heavily underwater.

MVRV Ratio Technical Breakdown

The 30-day MVRV ratio serves as a key gauge of short-term profitability by comparing market value to realized value. XRP's current MVRV reading places the asset in what analysts describe as a deep undervaluation zone. The metric last reached these levels in December 2020, a period that preceded subsequent price recovery in past market cycles.

The latest downturn follows XRP's rally through late 2024 and early 2025, which resulted in an all-time high of $3.65. That rally was driven by optimism around Ripple's regulatory progress, rising institutional interest, and ETF speculation. As price action cooled, late entrants were caught at elevated levels and forced into losses as volatility returned. Repeated sell-offs since then have pushed short-term holders deeper into losses.

Sentiment Indicators and Whale Activity

Santiment's data shows a deterioration in retail sentiment, with discussion trends increasingly dominated by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) as well as capitulation. On-chain activity among large holders has also cooled, with whale transaction volumes down by more than 50%.

With sentiment compressed and traders underwater, the combination of extreme MVRV readings and reduced whale activity marks a notable shift in market conditions. The data indicates that much of the near-term selling pressure from short-term holders may have already materialized, though weak MVRV readings do not guarantee immediate price reversal.