Prediction Market

Sygnum Bank’s chief investment officer said the market is increasingly important in monitoring macro risks, especially during heightened conflict in Iran. Data show that the number of prediction market trades in March rose 2,838% year over year, and the professional trading team has incorporated it into its macro analysis framework to develop trading strategies.

This week, major prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi faced significant backlash, highlighting the divide between regulatory approval and public acceptance. Polymarket withdrew controversial betting markets after public outcry, while Kalshi's contract offerings were banned in Nevada, stressing the industry's legitimacy challenges.

Polymarket has become La Liga's official prediction market partner in the U.S. and Canada, gaining exclusive rights to use the league's intellectual property. This partnership aims to enhance fan engagement and comes amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

According to CryptoRank data, political-topic trading volume is the highest in the market during the first quarter of 2026, while sports-related trading makes up only a small portion. The top five assets by trading volume are all related to political events, indicating the market’s focus on political forecasting.

Polymarket removed a betting market on U.S. military rescues in Iran after backlash from lawmakers, who criticized it for trivializing such efforts. This reflects growing scrutiny and regulation of prediction markets amid concerns over ethics and integrity.

The likelihood of a US invasion of Iran rose to 63% following Trump's recent comments. Mixed signals from the administration create uncertainty in the markets, affecting assets like Bitcoin and oil prices.

Gate News message, prediction markets in Q1 2026 showed politics dominated trading volume this quarter, with sports accounting for only a small portion. The top two markets were: Big Game Champion 2026 saw Seattle win with a launch probability of 0.8%. Trump's Fed Chair nominee market resulted in Ke

A prediction platform was taken down for violating rules after it posted a prediction market about missing American pilots, sparking controversy. The market showed that most users believed the pilots would not be rescued in the short term. Congressman Moulton criticized the transaction as disgusting, questioned the transparency of the rules, and expressed concern about insider trading, calling for stronger regulation.

Gate News message, April 5, the prediction market platform Polymarket has taken down a betting page related to a U.S. military rescue operation. Local time on Friday, a U.S. F-15E fighter jet was shot down by Iran, one crew member has been rescued, and the other remains missing and falling. The page previously allowed users to bet on which day the U.S. side would confirm that the two pilots had been rescued.

On April 5, during a Polymarket prediction event, an account with a 42.1% win probability bet $490k that Arizona would beat Michigan, with an opening position average price of 50¢. The game will be played at 8:49 a.m. Beijing time this morning, and the suspense lies in the offensive and defensive matchups between the two teams.

On April 5, on-chain data shows that in a prediction for a game between the NBA Pistons and the 76ers, a certain account placed a bet of $590k on the Pistons giving up 3.5 points, with expected profits exceeding $4 million. The Pistons are currently ranked 1st in the Eastern Conference, while the 76ers are ranked 6th.

Gate News message: On April 4, former Obama presidential campaign manager Stephanie Cutter joined prediction market platform Kalshi as a policy advisor.

On April 4, the NCAA “Final Four” is about to kick off. The University of Michigan has the highest chance to win the championship at 35%, while the University of Arizona is at 32%. The games will feature a matchup between the University of Connecticut and the University of Illinois, as well as a showdown between the University of Michigan and the University of Arizona.

Polymarket and PredicXion are expanding into Asian markets and launching Chinese-language support to drive localization. However, countries such as China and India lack clear regulation for blockchain prediction markets, and there are strict restrictions on gambling activities, which affects market expansion. The difference between prediction markets and gambling is their ability to aggregate information.

Polymarket removed a market tied to the fate of a missing US service member after mounting backlash, saying the listing violated its “integrity standards.” The controversy erupted after a prediction market appeared asking whether US authorities would confirm the rescue of a pilot reportedly shot

A prediction market platform removed markets about the fate of a missing American pilot for violating the “integrity standards,” triggering controversy. U.S. House lawmakers criticized such betting as “disgusting” and questioned rule transparency. Meanwhile, concerns about insider trading have intensified, and regulators are calling for stronger restriction measures.

A Nevada judge ruled that Kalshi’s sports prediction market products have no substantive difference from gambling, extended the injunction prohibiting it from offering related services locally until the case is further considered. Regulators believe it should be subject to the state’s gambling regulations.

A Nevada judge extended a ban on Kalshi's sports-related prediction markets, agreeing with regulators that they resemble illegal gambling. Kalshi argues they are federally regulated, prompting a broader legal conflict as state actions against prediction markets increase nationwide.

Polymarket’s prediction data shows that the probability of the "Claude Mythos" model released in April dropped sharply to 28%, while the probability of the model released in June rose to 53%. Related contract rules require that the model must be confirmed only after following specific naming conventions and being made publicly accessible, and Anthropic also prohibits users from "free-riding" on Claude.