#密码资产动态追踪 Tonight at 21:30, the US December CPI data will be released— the market is already on edge because this set of data could once again deliver a shock to inflation expectations.

According to the latest surveys from Bloomberg and FactSet, the market generally expects the overall CPI month-over-month increase to be around 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%. More importantly, the core CPI (excluding food and energy) is also expected to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. It may sound unremarkable, but here’s the issue—inflation still hasn't truly cooled down.

Interestingly, the Cleveland Fed’s own model estimates that the core CPI might only increase 0.22% MoM. If that’s true, it could theoretically ease some pressure. But Wall Street traders don’t buy into this at all; they insist that inflation remains stubborn and is still far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The best indicator of the situation is CME’s latest data: the market now prices in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January! In other words, rate cuts are no longer expected and have become a consensus. Against this backdrop, both the stock market and the crypto space will react quite sensitively to this data.

At this time tomorrow night, the market could experience significant volatility, so everyone should be prepared.