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#Polymarket每日热点
Regarding the prediction of a hantavirus pandemic in 2026, my logic is cautiously bearish:
1. The primary transmission route of hantavirus is through rodent excretions, with very weak human-to-human transmission capability, making large-scale community spread difficult;
2. Currently, the global health system's monitoring and response to such naturally occurring infectious diseases are highly mature, and early warning and intervention can effectively block the spread;
3. Based on historical data, hantavirus has never had a precedent for a pandemic across continents, and its viral characteristics do not support rapid human-to-human mutation.
Therefore, I lean more towards the judgment that "a global pandemic will not occur," and the corresponding trading strategy is also biased towards the short side.